DOW Friday Closing Price - 38314
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5074
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 17397
RUT Friday Closing Price - 1827

The fears being felt during the past 6 weeks became real when Trump announced blank tariffs on all 185 nations. The blankness without specificity, in most of the tariffs, was a red flag that caused the biggest 1-week drop since 1984 to happen this past week. Not even the announcement of the Covid-pandemic in 2022 or the recession in 2008, caused the indexes to drop so much. The drops were from a minimum of 8% in the DOW to a maximum in the NASDAQ of 13%. All pivotal intraweek supports were broken and the indexes closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's lows will be seen this week. In the DOW, that is below 38264, in the SPX that is below 5069, in the NASDAQ that is below 17387 and in the RUT, that is below 1783.

The magnitude of the move down, the breaks of pivotal and strong intraweek support levels, and the fact that Trump is not likely to back off his decision, does make the 200-week MA's targets, if not magnets. In the DOW that level is at 36195 (another 2114 points lower), in the SPX that line is at 4674 (another 400 points lower), and in the NASDAQ, that line is at 15720 (another 1677 points lower). The RUT broke that line the previous week, meaning that line is not in play to the downside. Nonetheless, there is a lot of established for-a-period-of-5-years support between 1641 and 1725 (another 102- 186 points lower) that should hold. At this time and until the actual results of these tariffs are known, the 200-week MA's should hold. That probably means a recovery rally will be seen once reached, and no new lows for at least 2-3 months therafter. One thing that does make this additional move down a high probability is that computers and algorithms no longer have any levels nearby where automatic buying will be seen. The levels that were there previous-to-today got easily broken on Friday, and the computers and algorithms were unable to prevent it for the last part of the day.

The Fed does not meet until May. It is now anticipated that they will begin to cut rates and do it 4 times this year, but that will not even begin to happen for at least another 6 weeks, so that is not likely to help the market now. As such, the indexes reaching the MA's is likely to happen this week, or no longer than within the next 3 weeks. The deciding factor (as to when that will likely happen) is found in all 3 indexes, in the form of one still existing daily and weekly close support level in each index. That level is considered minor (not likely to stop the downtrend) but a short-term bounce could occur from it. In the DOW those levels are at 37735 and at 37973 (daily and weekly close supports), in the SPX those levels are both at 4967, in the NASDAQ those levels are both at 17037. Probabilities do not favor them holding up this week, but it is good to know that they are there and could hold up for a week or two.

One thing that could change this outlook, is if Trump starts to change his mind of the severity and blanket tariffs he imposed. That is not likely to happen, but it could, so knowing what levels to the upside are now resistance is important. In the DOW and on a daily closing basis, resistance is found at 40003. In the SPX, that level is at 5254, and in the NASDAQ it is at 18339.

We are now facing something we have never faced before and the probabilities favor a recession and a downtrend, which would likely last for 9 months at least. Nonetheless, since this kind of tariff war has never happened before, there is a "slight" possibility that Trump has done something that is unique and that will work well. Having said that, results either way will not be known for months. As such, volatility will continue to be high.

HSI index was closed on Friday, so it did not have a chance to show any of the weakness seen on that day. Nonetheless, with all held Chinese stocks that I follow having had down days of 8% or slightly more on Friday, I would be surprised if that same thing does not occur to the index on Monday. The index did not generate any negative signals on Thursday but did close near 136 points above a pivotal weekly close support at 22736 and 276 points above the daily close support at 22736, suggesting that those levels are likely to get broken on Monday. If so, there is open air below to 22036 (on a weekly closing basis). Even then, all the nearby support levels are previous upside closes and as such, somewhat minor in nature. If none of those hold up, the first decent weekly close support level is not found until 19898 (2750 points lower). If by any chance the indexes generates a green close on Monday, these negative downside targets will not likely be in play.

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GOLD(Jun 2025 chart) generated a negative reversal week,. having made a new all-time high at $3201 and then falling $168 (5.3%) to close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at $3033 will be seen this week. Nothing, other than the negative reversal week, occurred on the weekly chart but on the daily closing chart, Gold generated a failure signal against the bulls, as well as a sell signal, given that it closed below $3071 and $3037 respectively (closed at $3035). This does suggest that the $3201 level is likely the top to this rally. Next level of daily close support is found at $2956. Daily close resistance is now found at $3071,

OIL made a new 4-year low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 60.50 will be seen this week. There is open air below to 50.60 and even then, the intraweek support there is not strong. The next level of decent intraweek support is found at $42. The bulls need a daily close above 65.68 to begin to negate this break.

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