DOW Friday Closing Price - 40212
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5363
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 18690
RUT Friday Closing Price - 1827

It was the craziest week ever, with the DOW having had a trading range of 4178 points, beating the previous week's trading range of 4118. Since the 1987 recession, there has not been a larger 1-week percentage drop seen. (from high to low, a 10% drop in price). The NASDAQ has fallen 21.4% from the high seen after Trump took office (based on weekly closes), meaning that a trend change signal occurred. Having said all of the above, the rally and green weekly close this past week, negated the trend change signal, leaving the chart picture unclear.

The traders are in total confusion, given that what Trump is doing (tariff war and flip-flopping repeatedly), has no history behind it and it is impossible at this time to determine the amount of damage done and how that will ultimately impact the market. Nonetheless, Irreparable damage has been done to the confidence levels and overall stability of the Dollar, the U.S. Bond market and of the investing world overall. As such, the bears continue to have a strong edge (if not outright control), meaning that rallies will continue to be sold. By the same token, the volatility due to the uncertainty of Trump's actions will make large trading range weeks the norm and not the exception.

The indexes did close in the upper half of the week's trading ranges, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 40778, SPX at 5481, NAZ at 19234 and RUT at 1931). No new news is expected to come out over the weekend, suggesting the charts (computers and algorithms) will be in play on Monday and perhaps for the first couple of days of the week). This is supported by the fact that some weekly close resistance levels were broken on Friday. The DOW showed a previous high weekly close resistance at 40003 and it closed at 40212, in the SPX the same thing was found at 5344 and it closed at 5363,and in the NASDAQ, that same resistance is found at 18513 and it closed at 18690. It should be noted that the RUT underperformed all other indexes, meaning that it is an overall negative note.

Further upside is likely to be seen but it is also likely to be limited. In the DOW there are 3 levels of daily close resistance to watch, with the last one highly unlikely to be broken and probably not even reached. Those levels are at 40813, at 41198 and at 42189. In the SPX, those levels are at 5521, at 5667, and at 5774. In the NASDAQ those levels are at 19278, at 19824 and at 20258. There is no assurance that any of those levels will be reached but at those levels, it can be assured that automatic computer selling will be seen.

As far as the downside, the 200-week MA's remain magnets that are likely to be reached (on a weekly closing basis), sometime over the next 2-6 weeks. In the DOW that level is at 16224, in the SPX it is at 4679, and in the NASDAQ at 15744.

In order for the outlook mentioned above to change, tangible proof that Trump's actions will be a benefit to the country have to be seen. There is no way that can happen right now and not likely to even be a "possibility" for another 2-3 months. This means that the traders will consistently sell rallies, though and because of the volatility and fragile emotional (fear and greed) nature of the traders, it will be difficult to determine exactly where that selling interest will appear.

HSI index dropped 15% in value after the increase in tariffs were announced. Nonetheless, no intraweek support levels were broken and the index did recuperate 10% of the loss, to rally and close near the high of the week, suggesting that further upside above last week's high at 21211 will be seen this week. Having said that, the rally high up to 24,874 is now highly likely to be a top that will not be broken until the fundamental picture changes. Decent intraweek resistance will now be found at 23241. To the downside, the 18671 level is pivotal intraweek support (last week's low was 19260. For Monday, a close above 20567 would generate further buying interest for the rest of the week.

Gold(Jun2025) generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week intraweek low and the rallying close above the previous week's high and in the process making a strong new all-time high that promises more to come. Gold closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $3262 will be seen this week. Last week's low at $2971 will now be pivotal support.

Oil generated a new 51-month intraweek low at 55.13 but then rallied 17% (from low to the high of the week) to close just $.49 cents lower than the previous week's close. Oil closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 63.85 will be seen this week. Having said that, the bears remain in overall control, with the bulls needing a weekly close above 66.07 (closed on Friday at 61.50) to regain the edge. For this week, a daily close above 62.35 would generate a bit more upside, with 65.98 as the next daily close resistance above. A daily close below 59.58 would give the bears new ammunition.