Issue #919
Jul 13, 2025 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Tariff announcements are the key to the market right now.

DOW Friday Closing Price - 44371
SPX Friday Closing Price - 6259
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 22780
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2234

Across the board, the indexes generated a red weekly close, with the SPX and NASDAQ generating a new all-time intraweek high and the RUT making a new rally high before closing red. Normally, this type of action would be considered a negative reversal sign but in this case, the SPX and the NASDAQ closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher chance of further upside above last week's high occurring, meaning that if it happens, the bulls would remain in full control as the negative sign would be negated.

The traders continue to act on Trump's statements, meaning that the charts are not in play at this moment, especially since there are no pivotal areas of support or resistance nearby that would trigger automatic buying or selling by computers and algorithms. This week there are quite a few economic reports scheduled that could generate movement in either direction. Having said that though, the tariffs scenario continues to be the key ingredient. Trump did postpone for another 3 weeks the announcement of whether the tariffs would remain as stated or increase, but then on Friday he raised the tariffs on Brazil (#2 trader with U.S.) as a political statement (not a trade statement), stating that he believes that ex-President Bolsonaro was taken down from the presidency (of Brazil) in a fraudulent manner. Such action left many stunned as that is not really a tariff action but a punishment action. That action on Friday is what caused the negative reversal in the indexes. This weekend, he announced new tariffs on Mexico and the EU and that action has the indexes showing selling today (Sunday).

This week on Tuesday, the inflation (CPI) report comes out. On Thursday, the Retail Sales number will be announced and on Friday, the Consumer Confidence number will be shown. All of those reports are normally important and indicative but right now, it is difficult to see them taking priority over the tariff war, which is what is driving the market. The earnings season gets fully underway this week with the DOW stocks getting the bigger brunt of reports. Earnings will be important though none of the catalytic big stocks report this week, suggesting earnings will not likely be a big factor this week.

At this time, the probabilities seem to short-term favor the bears because of the overbought condition and the tariff war that continues to be unclear and leaning to higher tariffs being announced. By the same token, Trump has announced that several deals are being worked on, and if those work out, it would be a positive.

There are a couple of chart support levels that are minor in nature but if broken could generate some new short-term selling. In the SPX, an intraweek break below 6201 could generate enough selling to test the previous all-time high daily close at 6144. In the NASDAQ, there are two minor intraweek levels to watch at 22587 and at 22388. If both of those are broken, a drop down to the previous all-time daily closing high at 22175 would likely be seen. If both of the indexes make a new all-time highs (SPX above 6290 and NAZ above 22915), it is likely none of these support levels will be broken. With Trump announcing new tariffs this weekend, the indexes are due to open lower tomorrow, meaning the minor intraweek support level will likely be in play. On Tuesday the inflation report comes out and both of those could become catalysts, especially if the inflation report comes out higher than expected (expected to be .2%).

The DOW and the RUT are not likely to be indicative indexes this week, unless some of the DOW stocks reporting earnings this week show unexpected results by a large margin.

HSI Index had a mostly uneventful week with nothing broken (support or resistance). The index closed in the middle of the week's trading range, also suggesting nothing is clear for this week. A daily close below 23827 or above 24474 would generate indicative movement in the direction broken. The index closed on Friday at 24217.


GOLD(Aug 2025 chart) generated a small follow-through to the upside and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $3370 will be seen this week. Overall though, no indicative action occurred, meaning that Gold remains in a sideways trading action, requiring new news to change that outlook. The upside objective of this move is the $3399 level. A weekly close above $3438 or below $3287 would be short-term indicative. This week, Gold is likely to trade between $3343 and $3399 (based on daily closes) unless news comes out.

OIL generated a small failure signal against the bears, having closed on Friday above a previous low weekly close support at 67.20 (closed at 68.71) Having said that, the bulls were unable to close above a minor weekly close resistance at 68.90, suggesting that this week remains open-air for both the bulls and the bears. For the time being and on a daily closing basis, the 71.70 and 65.68 are resistance and support. The traders await news.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

Once again, I have no new mentions as the outlook remains in the hands of what Trump says and does regarding tariffs. That is not something that can be predicted with any amount of probability at this time. Overall, the probabilities still slightly favor the bears but with no levels of resistance above or objectives below which can be depended on, meaning that trading this market remains a toss-of-a-coin. There are a couple of economic reports, as well as tariff actions that could cause selling to appear but as far as the buy side, nothing is clear.

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Updates
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

BCTX generated another new all-time weekly closing low at 1.97, meaning that it dropped over 32% in price this past week. The reason for the price drop is that the company is considering another (3rd this year) public offering of close to 7 million shares at 2.93. The company has faced increased costs and negative earnings recently, and requires funds to continue its cancer studies that promise a bright future, especially considering that several of the medicines they are working on have shown very promising results. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below 1.97 is expected to be seen this week. Pivotal intraweek resistance is at 3.15. Nonetheless, in looking at the intraday chart, a rally above 2.18 would generate some new buying interest. Having said that, it is unlikely the stock will generate any kind of a rally until the public offering is announced and completed. By the same token, the public offering (if it happens) is at 2.93, meaning that at 1.97, it is below that price.

LXRX generated a new 32-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.19 will be seen this week. The next area of weekly close resistance is found between 1.48 and 1.58, meaning that is the target for this week. On a daily closing basis, support is now found at .99. Fundamental analysts on the stock have predicted a $4 target for this year.

TCEHY generated a new 6-week intraweek low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 62.71 will be seen this week. No new signals were given, meaning that the bears remain with the edge but did not gain any new ammunition. A daily close below 62.35 would generate a new sell signal, as well as a failure signal of consequence, giving a downside target of reaching the 200-day MA, currently at 58.58. To the upside, a daily close above 63.98 would take some of the bear's edge away.

TXN generated a new all-time intraweek, daily and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 221.69 will be seen this week. The bulls will need to confirm the breakout and that could be done on Wednesday's daily close, given that the company reports earnings on Tuesday after the close. Earnings are expected to be higher than last year (expected to be $1.34, vs last year's $1.17). If that occurs, covering of the short positions will be a must. Any daily close below the previous all-time high daily close at 220.29 will be seen as a negative (stock closed on Friday at 221.25).

VWDRY generated an uneventful inside week but did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.44 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a minor sell signal on the daily closing chart, having closed below the previous low daily close at 5.47 (closed at 5.44). This does suggest that on an intraweek basis, the 200-day MA (currently at 5.13) could be visited. A daily close above 5.70 would negate this week's downside outlook and a daily close above 5.84 would give the bulls new ammunition.

YUMC generated a new 13-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 48.36 will be seen this week. On a potential negative, the stock fell back (from the high) on Friday to close exactly at the 200-week MA (currently at 47.71 - stock closed on Friday at 47.72) and that was the upside objective after the stock started the current rally 3 weeks ago. It is unlikely that the bulls will be successful on any kind of a breakout above that line until the company reports earnings on the 31st. On an intraweek basis, there is no resistance above until 51.72, meaning that if the bulls can pull "a rabbit out of the hat", that would be the objective. The 200-day MA is currently at 46.54 and that is Monday's objective. A daily close below that level will not only break the line but also generate a failure signal against the bulls, meaning that line and the previous high daily close at 46.91 are short-term pivotal this week. A red weekly close next Friday would suggest that 45.56 would be the minimum objective.

ZLAB generated a new 5-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 32.31 will be seen this week. The stock did generate a sell signal on the weekly closing chart that offers a downside objective of 32.00 (based on a weekly close). On intraweek basis though, the 200-day MA, currently at 30.37, is a likely target (highly likely to be reached this week). There has been no news, meaning that this recent weakness is chart oriented and likely based on the fact that the 200-week MA (currently at 35.44) was reached (and broken) 5 weeks ago but given that it was the first time in close to 4 years, the failure to stay above it, brought in selling by the computers and algorithms. Having said that and given that there has been no change in the fundamental picture, the break of the line (for 1 week) is a positive sign, suggesting that overall and for the mid-to-long term, the stock should be heading higher. Any weekly close below 30.14 would negate this outlook.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 32.73.

2) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.44.

3) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.513 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.08.

4) BCTX - Averaged long at 7.825 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 2.02.

5) TXN - Averaged short at 194.95 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 221.29.

6) AAPL - Covered shorts at 208.65. Averaged short at 205.62. Loss on the trade of $606 per 100 shares (2 mentions)..

7) MMM - Covered shorts at 156.28. Shorted at 151.23. Loss on the trade of $505 peer 100 shares.

8) YUMC - Shorted at 44.37. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 47.72.

9) TCEHY - Shorted at 66.15. Stop loss is at 66.37. Stock closed on Friday at 63.12.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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