DOW Friday Closing Price - 42270
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5911
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 21340
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2066

All indexes except the NASDAQ, generated uneventful inside weeks this past week. The NASDAQ did make a new rally high but then only by .006% (129 points) and it can also be considered uneventful as no daily, weekly or monthly close resistance levels were broken. The surprise factor was that the indexes were expected to go lower this past week but didn't, mainly because of Trump backing off his 50% tariffs on the EU, better than expected earnings on AI companies, and slightly better inflation figures. As such, the negative feelings that were felt when the market closed the previous week were erased, meaning that the bears lost the gained edge that ended the previous week's action. Having said all of the above, nothing indicative occurred this past week. Traders await this week's important reports (ISM Index on Monday and Jobs report on Friday), hoping they will give some clarity.

The stock market had an up month, meaning that this year the adage of "sell in May and go away" did not work. Then again, the market has had a situation/scenario this year that has not ever been in place before, meaning that the norm was easily disrupted. The summer months though, do tend to underperform historically due to factors that rarely change (supply/demand/hiring etc.), meaning that the bears should maintain some form of control at this time unless something fundamentally and thoroughly positive and tangible comes out. It is unlikely to happen but the tariff war that is occurring, certainly leaves the door open for something unexpected to occur.

The bulls did have a chance this past week to create a scenario where automatic computer and algorithm buying would occur, but they failed. The NASDAQ got a lot of support from the AI industry earnings reports and did outperform the other indexes. The bulls had a chance to make a statement as the all-time high monthly close in the index was/is at 21478 and the index did get up as high at 21611 on Thursday. A new all-time monthly close would have generated some automatic buying by computers and algorithms but in the end, the bulls failed as the index closed out the month at 21340. As such, this coming week is mostly about daily close resistance levels across the board (all indexes) and then the weekly close on Friday (after the Jobs report comes out). The levels of resistance are not close by but they are also not far away, meaning that the reports truly have to be much over or under the expected to cause indicative action to occur.

In the DOW and on a daily closing basis, the levels to watch are 42792 and 41603 (on a weekly closing basis, they are at 42654 and 41603). In the SPX those levels are at 5958 and 5766 (on a weekly closing basis, they are at 5958 and at 5802). In the NASDAQ those levels are at 21559 and at 20915 (on a weekly closing basis, they are at 21478 and at 20847). Closes above or below those levels (accordingly) will generate computer and algorithm buying or selling.

Once again, the scenario is strongly reliant on Trump news and especially on tariff news. I do know that Trump and Xi (U.S. and China) are having a very adversarial relationship that does affect the market substantially. On Friday, the door got open again for adversarial action to reappear, and if that coalesces, it could be a negative. If the opposite occurs, it would be bullish. The trade between these two nations is huge and does have a strong economic impact on the market.

That is all that can be said about the indexes this week. It is a wait and see attitude that is prevalent as of today.

HSI Index had an uneventful inside week but did close red and near the low of the week suggesting further downside below last week. low at 23161 will be seen this week. The index shows minor but short-term indicative support at 23059, which if broken would suggest a drop to the decent and mid-term indicative intraweek support at 22547 (22736 on a weekly closing basis). On a positive note for the bulls, the index closed Friday (monthly close) above at 23119 (closed at 23389) and that is a new 30-month monthly closing high that broke 2 previous monthly close resistance levels. The bulls remain with overall control though short-term more downside is expected to be seen. A daily close above 23837, would negate the short-term negative outlook.

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GOLD(Aug 2025 chart) generated an uneventful inside week and inside month, but did close red on both charts, suggesting that the runaway freight train scenario has ended (was the first red monthly close since Nov24). Having said that, the bears do have a very minor edge this week, with Gold having generated a red daily close at $3315 on Friday, and daily close support being at $3322. On an intraweek basis, there is support at $3269, which if broken would suggest at drop to $3228 will be seen. None of this is indicative at this time. It is chart building as the traders wait for more fundamental information. A daily close above $3394 would negate this scenario.

OIL generated a generally unindicative week but did show a tiny bit more short-term weakness than was seen in Gold, mainly because the bears remain with the clear edge fundamentally and chart-wise. No signals were given anywhere, so there is no new chart comment to be made, other than to indicate the levels in play this week. On a daily closing basis, short-term indicative support and resistance levels are found at 59.24 and 62.35. On a weekly closing basis, they are at 64.68 and at 58.29. Oil closed on Friday at 60.74.

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