DOW Friday Closing Price - 40113
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5525
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 19432
RUT Friday Closing Price - 1957

The two main indexes (the SPX and the NASDAQ) generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing above the previous week's highs. They both closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (SPX at 5528 and NAZ at 19447) will be seen this week. If that does occur and considering that chart alone (no fundamentals involved), it would mean the correction (or recent downtrend) has found a bottom. The move up this week came about because Trump backtracked on some of his recent tariff and Fed Chief comments, making the negatives of them be less than what they were expected to be (before he backtracked). As such, the bulls have the edge for this week as the computers and algorithms will continue to be buyers until the upside resistance levels are reached. This, of course, can easily be negated if Trump makes any new negative-ot-the-economy statements.

This coming week is very important on both a fundamental and chart basis, given that on Wednesday, the monthly close occurs, on Thursday AM, the ISM Index report come out, and after the close, AAPL and AMZN report, and on Friday morning the Jobs report comes out. As such, this week could be strongly short-term pivotal.

Having said that and exclusively looking at the charts and the action and weekly closes that occurred, as well as on the monthly closes on Wednesday, here are the daily and weekly close resistance and support levels in play. In the SPX, there in intraweek and daily close resistance at 5669 that is not likely to be broken unless some additional positive fundamental news comes out. If that does occur, the 5786 is a highly indicative intraweek resistance, which if broken would be a game changer. By the same token and in looking at the daily closing chart, a red close on Monday below 5521 would take away some of the air from the bull balloon and if a daily close below 5408 occurs at any time this week, that would give the edge back to the bears.

As far as the NASDAQ is concerned, the index is very important this week, especially on Friday after Thursday's after-the-close earnings reports on AAPL and AMZN. As far as the chart is concerned, the index shows intraweek resistance at 19707, at 19938, at 20292 and at 20690. The first resistance at 19707 would give the bulls added ammunition, the second one at 19938 is highly likely to be reached (507 points higher, based on the weekly closing chart). The third one at 20292, would be indicative in favor of the bulls (if broken), and the last one would be a game changer.

The DOW and the RUT have secondary roles this week and are not likely to be indicative, at least not until Friday. Nonetheless and on a daily closing basis, a close above 40813 would be short-term indicative, and a close above 42225 would suggest that more upside is to come. In the RUT, there is resistance at 2012 and indicative at 2109.

It is unlikely that any news of consequence will come out this weekend, meaning that the probabilities highly favor the indexes moving higher at the beginning of the week. The SPX will be the key index this week and the minimum upside is 5571, as there is an open gap there that will likely be closed. Overall though, the index could easily get up to the 5650-5660 level before the reports come out. A close on Wednesday (monthly close) above 5611 would make it a positive reversal month, which would increase the chances for the bulls that May would be a positive month.

By historical nature, May has been a month to sell (adage = "sell in May and go away"), and with the damage already done by Trump's actions that is not likely to be negated in one month, the probabilities do favor this May also ending up being a negative month. With all the reports due out this week, this could be "the" indicative week of the month.

HSI index generated a 3rd green weekly close and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 22276 will be seen this week. The same scenario regarding the unlikelihood of news coming out this week applies here as well, meaning further upside is likely to be seen this week. There is an open gap at 22638 that is highly likely to be reached. On an intraweek basis, there is no resistance of consequence until 23241 is reached, meaning that is a target if no negative news comes out. Nonetheless and on a daily closing basis, the 22536 level has some meaning, as a confirmed close above that level would generate a failure signal against the bears. Having said that, that level was not a major pivotal support, meaning that a failure signal in this scenario, is not as indicative as it would normally be. On a weekly closing basis, the 22736 level is indicative resistance, suggesting the gap (658 points high) is likely to be reached, but further upside is likely to be strongly limited thereafter. No pivotal support level nearby below.

GOLD(Jun 2025 chart) made a new all-time intraweek high at $3509, but the proceeded to drop $239 (7%) from the high, suggesting that the runaway freight train" status had ended. Gold still generated a green weekly close but it was only $3 higher than the previous week's close and it was in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at $3270 will be seen this week. This big drop from the high, in addition to the change in the fundamental picture, does now open the door for a top to this rally having been made. The daily closing chart does show a successful retest of the all-time high daily close at $3425, with a close on Thursday at $3348 and red close on Friday. A close below $3294 on Monday would generate a sell signal on the daily closing chart and would give a downside objective of $3166, which is the previous all-time daily closing price. A daily close above $3348 would give the bulls a bit of new ammunition with which to retest the all-time high once again. The monthly chart is important this month, given that at close on Wednesday below $3240 would be in the lower half of the month's trading range, opening the door for a top to have been made. Such a scenario would suggest that a drop all the way down to $2761 could be seen over the next few months.

OIL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high but then closing red. Oil closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 64.87 or going below last week's low at 61.57. Nonetheless and in looking at the daily closing, the bears have a very slight advantage over the bears for this week. The two levels to watch on the daily closing chart, at 64.68 and 59.48. Whichever gets broken would give the bulls or the bears short-term control. A close above 64.32 or below 62.27 would give one or the other a small edge.