DOW Friday Closing Price - 41249
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5659
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 20063
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2023

All the indexes (with the exception of the RUT) generated a negative reversal week. Normally and under the circumstances where all the economic and earnings reports of consequence are out, would suggest that a top to this rally has occurred. Nonetheless, the week ended in total and complete uncertainty as the red closes were by minor amounts, the closes were either in the middle of the week's trading ranges or in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting equal (or slightly higher) chances of going above last week's highs than below last week's lows, and the reports that did come out were either as expected or better than expected. In addition and with Trump continuing to give mixed signals, the traders find themselves in a scenario where making intelligent and decisive (even short-term) decisions is impossible.

Having said all of the above, and with the information stated, the reality is that on a chart basis (the only thing with some reliability at this time), the indexes did reach (or are close to) levels of resistance that require tangible good news to break. This means that the probabilities do favor the bears this week. There is "one" report this week that has the possibility of being "somewhat" catalytic and that is the CPI inflation report on Tuesday. Nonetheless, the trend continues to be to the downside and it is unlikely that trend will be broken by the negatives of Trump's tariffs, given that they have not yet been around long enough to cause this report to come in higher than expected. The Retail Sales number comes out on Thursday, but at this time it is unlikely to have any catalytical effect.

Here are the levels of intraweek and daily and weekly closes resistance that are pivotal. The DOW does not have anything close by of importance on an intraweek or on a daily closing basis, but on a weekly closing basis, the level is at 41563 and more so at 41938. In the SPX the resistance levels to watch are 5776 and 5786 (intraweek and daily close). The index did get up to 5720 this past week. The NASDAQ is the index the traders will be watching closely as there is very little room to the upside, which if the resistance above are broken would trigger automatic buying by computers and algorithms. Those levels are at 20292, 20287, and at 20391 (intraweek, daily close and weekly close. The index got up as high as 20249 this past week and that means there is very little (if any) room to the upside for the index to go up this week without triggering additional buying.

On a negative note for the bulls, the SPX and the NASDAQ were both showing a bullish breakaway/runaway gap formation, but in both cases, the runaway gaps were closed. This means that ammunition was taken away from the bulls and that the breakaway gaps (at 5309 and at 18396, respectively) have now become target. The intraweek chart of the NAZ does suggest that a drop down to 18400 is likely to happen. That would be a 9% drop from the present level.

Last week's lows (DOW at 40759, SPX at 5578, and NASDAQ at 19605) are all trigger points that if broken would give the bears the edge. The only index that closed in the lower half of the week's trading range was the DOW.

On a fundamental basis, this market is presently relying on Trump's tariffs doing (or not doing) what he meant them to do. A trade agreement with the U.K. was signed on Friday and is what caused the rally to occur that caused the indexes to close in the upper half of the week's trading range. Evidently, just the announcement of a trade deal will give the bulls ammunition. Trump did say that this was a major breakthrough but then again, reviews of the deal do not support that statement. Here is one statement about the deal: "The actual substantive items that they negotiated are pretty narrow," said Stan Veuger, a senior fellow in economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. "In some sense you could say they basically took the status quo, made marginal changes and called it a deal.". It is evident that in order to break the resistances mentioned above, tangible proof of a positive end to the tariff is needed to generate more upside.

HSI had another green week (5th in a row) and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 23248 will be seen this week. If that does occur, the index will be breaking an indicative intraweek resistance that is at 23242. The gap down that occurred right after Trump announced the increase in tariffs to 145% on China was closed this week, meaning that all the negatives of the tariffs have gone away without the tariffs going away. That is an event that underlines the strength that China presently has. Having said that, the index closed above a decent weekly close resistance at 22736 but below the weekly close breakdown support at 22941, meaning that the weekly close this Friday is going to be short-term indicative. Nonetheless and using the daily closing chart, the 22976 level is indicative, given that a confirmed close above that level will likely give the bulls enough ammunition to close above its resistance level on Friday. The index closed at 22867 this past Friday. An intraweek drop below 22436 will weaken the bull's hand.

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GOLD(Jun 2025 chart) had another big trading range week, having traded in a $205 trading range ($3243 -$3448). On a weekly closing basis, Gold did generate a new all-time high weekly close but it was not indicative as on the daily closing chart, Gold now shows a double top at $3422/$3425 that now looms like a top has been found. Gold did close slightly on the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low is the probability for this week. On the daily closing chart, pivotal support is now found at $3222. On a short-term basis edge, daily close resistance is at $3448 and support at $3295. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

OIL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week low and closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 61.45 will be seen this week. Oil got down to 55.55 this week and the low made 5-weeks ago was 55.12, meaning that if Oil goes above this week's high next week, a successful retest of the low will have occurred on the intraweek chart. A failure signal against the bulls was given when Oil closed above 59.68 (closed at 61.05. Nonetheless, the failure signal is not as meaningful given that it was a low weekly close from 4 years ago. On a weekly closing basis, a close above 65.05 is needed to support a bottom to this downtrend having been found. On a daily closing basis, some minor but now short-term support is found at 59.58 and resistance at 62.27. Neither is pivotal but a close below or above either of those levels will give some ammunition to the bears or the bulls.

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