Issue #918
Jul 6, 2025 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls remain in control but this week does have the potential for a turnaround.
DOW Friday Closing Price - 44828 All the reports and events that happened this past week were positive to the stock market. Manufacturing production increased slightly, inflation dropped slightly, job creation increased slightly, and earnings continued (on some of the big companies) to show better than expected results. In addition, Trump's "Big Beautiful bill" was passed and signed into law, meaning tax cuts that stimulate the country on a short-term basis were also a positive addition to the other reports. The SPX and the NASDAQ continued to make new all-time highs and the DOW made a new rally high and closed only 82 points below the all-time weekly closing high, meaning that the bulls are committed to going farther up this week or face the potential negatives of a double top. Having said that, there was one potential negative that occurred, whereas the dichotomy between the DOW and the NASDAQ reversed direction, with the former gaining 4.4% on the week and the latter only gaining 1.3%. Over the past few years, when the scenario is bullish for the market, the NASDAQ has outperformed the DOW, meaning that the shift may have some meaning, suggesting perhaps that further upside is now limited. This is backed up with the fact that the NASDAQ is at the highest stochastic overbought condition it has been in during the past 5 years (98.6% out of a potential high of 100%). Chart-wise, the DOW is the index to watch this week, given that the index closed above an indictive weekly close resistance at 44546 (closed at 44828) and as such, the bulls are committed to making a new all-time weekly closing high above 44911 this Friday, and on a daily closing basis, also committed to breaking the indicative daily close resistance at 44882 and also making a new all-time daily close above 45014. This latter scenario does mean that every day of this week can be indicative. A daily close below 44303 (without breaking those two resistance levels first) would give new ammunition to the bears, which at this time would be indicative, due to the overbought condition and the fact that 95% of the potential positive news is already "in the picture", meaning that now, it is more about momentum than about positive news. There is one potential negative that could be announced this week, with the fact that on Wednesday July 9th, the 90-day pause period on tariffs, announced by Trump on April 9th, will expire. This means that Trump could announce additional reciprocal tariffs of as much as 70% on Wednesday, which in turn (and if he does announce them) would be a negative to the market. Either way, the NASDAQ is already 30% the previous all-time high weekly close and the SPX is 25% above, and that fact alone (added to the overbought condition and the seasonal tendency for July being a seasonal down month) does suggest that some form of a correction is likely to begin soon. In reading the fundamental outlook of economists (most of them), they generally lean to a sideways trend to occur during the next 2-3 months. That is it for the outlook for this week. There are no economic reports scheduled for this week that could generate movement in one direction or the other. This is a DOW week. HSI Index had a mostly uneventful week, though the door got opened for something of indicative power occurring this week (likely after Trump announces the new tariffs on Wednesday, after the pause period ends). The index did make a new 41-month weekly closing high the previous week but that was negated with the close on Thursday at 23916, which was below the previous 41-month weekly closing high at 24231. No confirmation (of the failure) occurred as no previous weekly close support was broken, but now the potential for a double high at 24232/24284 exists, and would be confirmed if the index closes this Friday below 23530. On the daily closing chart, that same support level is in play. To the upside though, the bulls would need to close at 24474, for it to give new ammunition to the bulls.
GOLD(Aug 2025 chart) generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 6-week low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $3352 will be seen. Last week's break of minor weekly close support was negated, meaning the bulls regained their short-term edge. On a daily closing basis, Gold closed at a support/resistance level, suggesting that Monday's close could indicate what Gold will do overall for the week. A daily close above $3356 would suggest $3399 would be visited and a close below $3333 would suggest $3308 would be visited. Having said that, the charts do not suggest anything of great consequence will occur this week. OIL generated an uneventful inside week but closed green and in the upper half of last week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 67.48 will be seen this week. The bears remain in short-term control. On Saturday (July 5th), OPEC increased production by 548,000 barrels per day, suggesting the Oil will be heading lower this week. On a daily closing basis, short-term pivotal support is found at 64.38, which if broken, would suggest that the 59.50-61.00 level would be the target for the week. To the upside, a daily close above 67.45 would open the door for the $69-$72 level.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions as sales are the only option right now that makes risk/reward sense but given that I am already holding quite a few short positions (at a loss), adding new ones is not a good option. In addition, the bulls have control and momentum on their side, meaning that shorting is not yet a decent possibility event. On the other side of the coin, purchasing anything right now is also not a good probability action.
Having said that, I may be "exchanging" short positions, given that AAPL does seem to have an open door for a rally up to $223 while RBLX seems to have a decent probability of heading lower with the possibility of getting as low as $75 (closed on Friday at 103.59 and having had a negative reversal week and the all-time high at 106.17, which could now be resistance. I will make that decision on both stocks by Wednesday (if not sooner).
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Updates
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| Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted. Status of account for 2025, as of 6/1 Profit of $19,126 using 100 shares per mention Closed out profitable trades for June per 100 shares per mention
NONE
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close. NONE Total Profit for June, per 100 shares. $0 Closed out losing trades for June per 100 shares of each mention.
WTW (short) $222
Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close. RBLX (short) $56 Total Loss for June, per 100 shares $278 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 7/1
TCEHY (short) $165
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
LXRX (long) $224 Total $3,770 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 7/1
TXN (short) $2365
YUMC (short) $34 Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
BCTX (long) $100 Total $6,401 Status of trades for month of June per 100 shares on each mention after losses subtracted.
Loss of $2.909
Status of account/portfolio for 2025, as of 6/30Profit of $16,217 per 100 shares.
AAPL made a new 13-week intraweek high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 214.65 will be seen this week. Trump's new bill does help the company and given that there is no resistance above until the 200-day MA, currently at 223.09, this is a stock that should be given strong consideration for the covering of the shorts. The indexes are showing some selling interest on Sunday (at 1:00pm), with the NASDAQ trading 155 points lower. If that holds up for the opening tomorrow, the stock could open lower. There is intraweek support at 208.42, which could be the target. BCTX generated a new all-time weekly closing low (at 2.91, below the previous at 2.93) but did not break the all-time intraweek low at 2.78. Nonetheless, the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.85 will be seen this week. The fundamental news continues to be a potential positive as the company's cancer drugs have been having positive trial results. It does bear to mention that for the past 40 weeks, the stock has generated a spike up day/week on 5 different occasions and the last 3 of them have come somewhere between 8-10 weeks from the previous one. It has now been 10 weeks since the previous one occurred, meaning that is it due to happen soon (based on the history over the past 8 months). The last spike up took the stock 250% in value. A break below 2.78 would keep the bears in control. A break above 3.16 would give the bulls some new chart ammunition. LXRX generated an uneventful inside week but did close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .955 will be seen this week. Due to the news and chart action, the .635 level has now become pivotal support. To the upside, the same pivotal scenario is found at 1.09. The 200-day MA is currently at .88 and it was broken the previous week on Friday and the stock maintained itself above the line on 3 of the past 4 trading days. A rally above the recent high at .97 would confirm the break and a rally above 1.09 would give the bulls short-term control. MMM generated a new 17-week intraweek high but then fell back to close "very slightly" above the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting almost equal chances of going above last week's high at 156.09 than below last week's low at 149.50. The stock came within $.26 cents from the all-time intraweek high at 156.35 and the failure to break it (in conjunction with the fallback), does give the bears a chance to generate a double top of consequence. The stock did generate a red daily close on Thursday, making Wednesday's close at 154.14 into the 3rd failure (over the past 5 months) where the stock closed above 154.00 but failed to make a new all-time daily closing high above 155.12. The previous 2 daily closing highs above 154.00 have been at 154.40 and 154.15 and there was a 4th one at 153.50, all of which brought about a correction of at least 6%. There is some minor but likely short-term indicative support at the $150 demilitarized zone. Any daily close above 154.40 would likely bring about a new all-time high. TCEHY generated a new 5-week intraweek low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 63.35 will be seen this week. A minor sell signal was generated on the weekly closing chart that does give the bears the edge for this week. Nonetheless, only a daily close below 62.49 (62.78 on a weekly closing basis) would give the bears a clear edge. A daily close above 65.76 would negate this short-term scenario. TXN generated another new 8-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 216.94 will be seen this week. The bulls did accomplish a lot this week as a decent intraweek resistance at 214.66 (weekly close at 214.34) were broken, meaning that the bulls are committed to testing the all-time intraweek high at 220.39 (220.29 on both the daily and weekly closing chart). Any daily close below 214.34 would "slightly" weaken the chart, which in turn could "potentially" generate a move down to the $202 level, given that there is absolutely no intraweek support until that level is reached. With the stock closing at 216.02 on Friday, the risk/reward ratio of keeping the shorts for now favors the bears, though the probabilities of further upside and new all-time highs being made favor the bulls. VWDRY generated an indicative positive reversal week, having made a new 8-week intraweek low and then turning around to make a new 34-week intraweek and weekly closing high. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5.86 will be seen this week. There was no new news to support the 20% rally from the low to the high of the week but the gap down at 4.93 was closed (low for the week was 4.90) and that removed a downside magnet from the chart. There is no intraweek resistance above until 6.61 is reached (minor in nature) but there is weekly close resistance at 5.96 (from a previous low weekly close of importance) that could be in play. Then again, and on a daily closing basis, that same resistance was broken on Friday as on the daily closing chart, it is/was at 5.77. Any daily close below 5.70 would now negate this breakout, and a daily close below 5.19 would confirm the negation. YUMC generated a new 7-week intraweek high and a new 13-week weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 46.37 will be seen this week. There is still intraweek resistance at 47.00 and the 200-week MA is at 47.77 and that line is not likely to be broken unless some positive fundamental news comes out. On the other side of the coin, the 200-day MA is currently at 46.23 and that line now shows 3 successful tests of it, meaning that the bears still maintain overall control of the stock. Short-term indicative intraweek support is now found at 43.69, which if broken would suggest the above will not happen (at least not this week). The 3 retests of the 200-day MA means that something longer term indicative is likely to happen this week, meaning this stock needs to be watched closely right now. ZLAB generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 36.97 will be seen this week. The bears had the chance to continue the recent fall seen 3 weeks ago when the stock negated the breakout above the 200-week MA (currently at 35.97) and fell to 34.44. Nonetheless, they failed and if the stock does go above last week's high and closes green on Friday, the bulls will have made a short-term statement that could become a mid-to-long term breakout. If nothing else, if the stock closes green on Friday, a retest of the high seen 4 weeks ago at 44.34 will likely occur. In looking at the daily chart, there is some resistance at 38.18 that could be indicative if broken. A drop below 34.44 would weaken the chart and a drop below 34.07 would give the bulls new ammunition. |
1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 36.40. 2) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.84. 3) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.513 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .90. 4) BCTX - Averaged long at 7.825 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 2.91. 5) TXN - Averaged short at 194.95 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 216.09. 6) AAPL - Averaged short at 205.62 (2 mentions) Stop loss is at 214.66. Stock closed on Friday at 213.55. 7) MMM - Shorted at 151.23. Stop loss at 154.83. Stock closed on Friday at 152.94. 8) WTW - Covered shorts at 302.23. Shorted at 301.01. Loss on the trade of $222 per 100 shares. 9) YUMC - Shorted at 44.37. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 45.76. 10) TCEHY - Shorted at 66.15. Stop loss is at 66.37. Stock closed on Friday at 63.57.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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