Issue #917
Jun 29, 2025 ,
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls in control.

DOW Friday Closing Price - 43819
SPX Friday Closing Price - 6173
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 22534
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2171

The SPX and the NASDAQ made new all-time highs this week, after China signed a tariff deal with the U.S., tension between Israel and Iran eased, dovish Fedspeak, and some corporate earnings coming in higher than expected. On the negative side "but ignored by the traders", GDP was revised downward, showing that the economy contracted at an annualized rate of 5% (instead of the previous estimate at 2%), inflation moved slightly higher (increased by .1%), personal income came in lower than expected (first decrease since 2021), and Canada cancelling trade/tariff talks with the U.S.

The negative reports came in later in the week and with the NASDAQ having made a new all-time intraweek and daily closing on Wednesday and the AI industry getting additional positive news, momentum was on the side of the bulls and the negatives were ignored. All indexes closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 43966, SPX at 6187, NASDAQ at 22603, and RUT at 2189) are expected to be seen this week.

This week, two of the most important reports of the month come out, with the ISM Index report coming out on Tuesday (expected to be 48.3%) and the Jobs report on Friday (expected to be 127k). Both of these reports are expected to show that Manufacturing remains in a contraction scenario (under 50%) and that Jobs remain healthy but at a more moderate pace than May. Lower than expected reports would bring in selling interest.

As of right now, the bulls are in control, but the fundamentals do not "clearly" support higher prices. In looking at the SPX fundamental projections at the beginning of the year were for the index to go as high as 7100 with the median estimate being 6400, Now analysts are saying 6600 is the highest it could go to but now many saying that 5200 could be seen with 6000 being the median estimate. With the index closing at 6173 on Friday, it is evident there is more downside that upside likely to be seen the rest of the year.

As far as what the charts say, it is also evident that neither the SPX nor the NASDAQ can be used right now to predict what levels can be reached where automatic selling is seen. As such, it is the DOW that is the important index as far as resistance levels above. On an intraweek basis, there is minor resistance at 44033 and then stronger at 44486. On a daily closing basis, the 44303 is a short-term indicative resistance, which if broken would signal higher prices with new all-time highs being probable. With the index closing at 43819 on Friday, another 484 point gain could be seen this week.

As far as the SPX and the NASDAQ are concerned, the previous all-time highs are what is important. In the SPX the previous all-time high daily close is at 6144 and the weekly one is at 6114. A close below both of them would be a signal that the top to the rally has been found. In the NASDAQ, those same levels are at 22175 and 22114. It is clearly evident that of both of these indexes, the latter is more indicative as this rally has been driven mainly by the Tech Industry.

As of today, there is nothing that is dependable as this market has recently rallied more on emotion, and daily news about Trump's actions, than on tangible fundamental facts. Having said that, generally and historically the summer months have been negative to the market with earnings and growth being slow. July starts on Tuesday and common sense (with all of the above considered), suggesting that the likelihood of this particular run up continuing is low. In addition, and probably as important as the economic news, there is very little more that Trump can say or do at this time, that would give the bulls new ammunition. The opposite is actually more likely.

HSI Index generated a new 41-month weekly closing high (closed at 24284 and the previous high weekly close was at 24231) and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 24557 will be seen. Having said that, the bulls were unable to confirm the breakout, given that neither the 41-month intraweek high (at 24874) and daily closing high (at 24771) were broken. This does mean that this week is still a toss-up as to whether the bulls will accomplish guaranteeing further upside. For this week, the levels to watch at 23689 and 24874. A close of the runaway gap at 23689 would suggest that the rally is over and a rally above 24874 would open the door for a rally all the way up to 26782.


GOLD(Aug 2025 chart) generated a short-term sell signal on both the daily and weekly closing charts, having closed below $3314 on the weekly closing chart and below both $3343 and $3308 on the daily closing chart (closed at $3302). This means that the uptrend for now is stalled and that a sideways trading range is now likely to be seen. On an intraweek basis, the pivotal levels to watch at $3509 and at $3123. However and given that it is likely that a sideways trend is in place, the likely trading range for the next few months is between $3209 and $3448. With Gold closing near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at $3282 will be seen this week, a drop down to at least $3269 is likely to occur. For this week, the $3363 is short-term pivotal resistance.

OIL generated a key negative reversal week, having made a new 21-week intraweek high and then closing below the previous week's low. Oil closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 64.00 will be seen this week. Oil had the biggest trading range week ($14.40) since July 2022, suggesting it was highly meaningful and also suggesting that last week's high at 78.40 is now a strong and pivotal resistance level that can only be broken with an indicative fundamental change. The bears did fall short of giving a definitive signal that the downtrend has resumed, having stayed above short-term pivotal intraweek support at 63.64 and staying above the 64.68 level on the weekly closing chart (closed at 65.09), which would have generated a failure signal against the bulls on this recent recovery rally. Having said that. there is presently an oversupply of Oil and if OPEC doesn't announce production cuts this week, or tensions in the middle eat do not resume, it is likely that Oil will go lower. Chart-wise, a rally above 66.42 would open the door for some recovery, with the 72.82 level being a potential objective. A drop below 63.64 would open the door for 59.74 to be seen.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions as sales are the only option right now that makes risk/reward sense but given that already I am holding quite a few short positions (and some at a loss), adding new ones is not a good option.

Having said that, the other problem that exists is that this market is being affected as much as with emotion as with economic data, meaning that nothing is dependable. On this front, the bulls have the edge.

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Updates
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AAPL in spite of all the positive action in the index market, the stock generated an uneventful week with no breaks of support or resistance. Nonetheless, the stock did not follow through to the downside (as expected) and did generate a green close (by $.08 cents) but then closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 198.96 and above last week's high at 203.67. On a daily closing basis, there is short-term pivotal support at 195.27, which if broken, the downside target would be at least a re-test of the weekly close support at 188.38. To the upside, a daily close above 203.92 would suggest the $210 level would be visited.

BCTX generated a new all-time intraweek low at 2.78 but then closed in the exact middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going below last week's low at 2.78 or above last week's high at 3.16. On a daily closing basis, a close below 2.93 would give the bulls "some" new ammunition and a close above 3.11, the same for the bulls. It does bear to mention that for the past 39 weeks, the stock has generated a spike up day/week on 5 different occasions and the last 3 of them have come somewhere between 8-10 weeks from the previous one. It has now been 9 weeks since the previous one occurred, meaning that is it due to happen soon (based on the history over the past 8 months). The last spike up took the stock 250% in value. A break below 2.78 would keep the bears in control.

LXRX generated a new 19-week intraweek and weekly closing high, due to the reiteration from one of the rating companies following the stock that the objective of the stock is to get up to $4 by the end of the year. Having said that, the stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at .72 than above last week's high at .97. Due to the news and chart action, the .635 level has now become pivotal support. To the upside, the same pivotal scenario is found at 1.09. The 200-day MA is currently at .89 and it was broken this week for 1 day but then the break was negated. The stock has traded below that line for the past 8 months, meaning that the failure was expected as rarely does such a line get broken the first time around. That line and last week's high at .97 are short-term pivotal.

MMM generated a new 5-week intraweek and weekly closing high and did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 152.87 will be seen this week. On a daily closing basis, any close above 154.15 (closed on Friday at 152.02) would give the bulls new and strong ammunition to test the all-time high daily close at 155.12 and likely break it. On the same daily closing chart, a close below 144.98 would give new ammunition to the bears. The chart picture is now very clear and what the index market does is likely to determine the action on the stock.

TCEHY generated a positive reversal week, having gone below last week's low and then above last week's high and closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 65.95 will be seen this week. Having said that, the action seen this past week was totally uneventful, when looking at the daily and weekly closing chart. Using the daily closing chart, a close above 66.02 would give a clear edge to the bulls and a close below 64.00 would do the opposite.

TXN generated a new 8-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 207.69 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 210.84 and stronger at 214.66. Intraweek support is now found at 194.67 and at 192.85. Probabilities do favor both resistance and support being seen during the next 4-8 weeks. Which comes first is the question.

WTW generated a failure signal against the bears, having closed on Friday above the previous low weekly close support at 302.19. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 304.90 is expected to be seen this week. There is no resistance above until the 200-day MA, currently at 212.36 is reached. A daily close below 298.78 would negate this scenario but that doesn't seem probable that it will happen. Having said that, a drop back down to the 301.01 (on a daily closing basis) is also likely to be seen and covering of the shorts at that price is what I am planning to do unless the Chinese index and the stock give me reasons to cover at a higher price.

VWDRY generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week intraweek low and then closing green. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going below last week's low at 5.07 or above last week's high at 5.54. The stock has now stayed above the 200-day MA (currently at 5.23) for the past 4 days and for 13 of the last 15 days, giving the edge to the bulls. A rally above last week's high at 5.54 would once again confirm the breakout and a break above the past 15 days high at 5.77 would give the bulls very strong ammunition. A drop below last week's low would give the edge back to the bears. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

YUMC generated a new 9-week weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 45.12 will be seen this week. On an intraweek basis though, the high seen 3 weeks ago at 45.59 was not broken and that remains short-term pivotal resistance. A stop loss should be placed at 45.69 as a break of that resistance would suggest that the 200-week MA, currently at 47.86 will be visited. In using the daily closing chart, short-term pivotal resistance is found at 44.91 and the same for support at 42.52.

ZLAB generated an inside week that did not resolve anything new as it was a green close but the close was on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 34.57 will be seen this week. Having said that, the stock had closed on the low of the week the previous week and no follow through was seen, meaning that the bears do not yet have regained total control. Short-term pivotal support is found at 33.80, which if broken would suggest the runaway gap at 31.71 would be targeted for closure, which would mean the breakaway gap at 28.82 would be targeted as well. One worrisome thing about this past week's action is that as of Wednesday, the bulls were unable to generate any buying interest at all (not even intraday). This is certainly a short-term pivotal week with the 33.80 daily close support being the key issue in play (stock closed on Friday at 34.74). To the upside, a rally above last week's high at 38.18 would negate this chart outlook.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 34.74.

2) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.32.

3) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.513 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .82.

4) BCTX - Averaged long at 7.825 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 2.96.

5) TXN - Averaged short at 194.95 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 207.08.

6) AAPL - Averaged short at 205.62 (2 mentions) Stop loss is at 214.66. Stock closed on Friday at 201.08.

7) MMM - Shorted at 151.23. Stop loss at 154.83. Stock closed on Friday at 152.02.

8) WTW - Shorted at 301.01. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 304.50.

9) YUMC - Shorted at 44.37. Stop loss at 45.69. Stock closed on Friday at 44.67.

10) TCEHY - Shorted at 66.15. Stop loss is at 66.37. Stock closed on Friday at 65.02


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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