Issue #925
Aug 24, 2025 , | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls have the edge. Can they build on it?
DOW Friday Closing Price - 45631 The Fed Chief Powell announced on Friday that due to growing risk to the economy, that the Fed may start cutting interest rates. In essence, the continuing health of the economy has now taken a step above inflation in importance, as far as the Fed is concerned. The announcement immediately generated a strong rally with the DOW gaining 2.6% in value, the SPX gaining 2%, the NASDAQ gaining 2.2% and the RUT gaining 4.8%. The chances of a 25% rate cut in September grew from 70% to 85%. The rally was strong and caused the DOW to make a new all-time intraweek, daily and weekly closing high. Nonetheless, the SPX did not make an all-time intraweek or daily closing high given that it had a high of 6478 and the all-time intraweek high is at 6481 and closed at 6466 and the all-time daily closing high is at 6468. It did make a new all-time weekly closing high at 6466 but then only by 19 points (.027%) as the all-time weekly closing high was made the previous week at 6449. The NASDAQ (and the Tech sector) did participate in the rally but not in any kind of an indicative way. The index did generate a red weekly close (in spite of the news) and the dichotomy with the DOW continued to be negative to the overall market. The red weekly close should not have happened with the news that came out, if and when it was truly a positive for the market to continue the uptrend. In addition, the RUT was the big winner this week, having almost doubled the percentage rally over the DOW and more than doubling the rally over the SPX and the NASDAQ. When small cap stocks lead the way, it generally means that a top (or at least a correction) to the overall market is on the horizon. In considering all of the above, it must be remembered that the SPX continues to be the main index that represents the overall market, and the fact that the bulls were unable to make a bull statement, does keep the door wide open for at least a correction to begin. Keeping in mind that lowering interest rates in a slowing economy is more of a negative than a positive (as it means that things overall are worsening), the rally this week was more of a "knee-jerk reaction" than anything actually positive. No big/catalytic economic or earnings reports are scheduled to come out this week. The Durable Goods number and the Consumer Confidence number are due out on Tuesday and then basically nothing of any consequence until Friday, which is when the PCE prices indexes (inflation) comes out on. The latter two have "some" importance. The Consumer Confidence number is expected to come out at 97% and the PCE number at .2%. a lower number in the former or a higher number in the latter could have some effect, but not likely much unless way out of line. As far as what to look for in the charts this week: In the DOW, if the previous all-time daily closing high at 45014 is broken, it would be a negative. In the NASDAQ, the 23849 and the 23142 levels are important if broken. The former to the upside and the latter to the downside. In the RUT, the 2328 and the 2442 levels have meaning. Having said that, in neither of these indexes are any of those levels likely to be in play this week. This means that the SPX is likely to be the only one with levels close-by enough that would be indicative in any way. To the upside, the 6468 level (on a daily closing basis) continues to be indicative, if a confirmed break occurs. Confirmation would come if the index makes a new all-time intraweek high at 6481. To the downside, a daily close below 6370 would be indicative, especially if confirmed with a break below the recent intraweek low at 6343. I do not expect any signals of consequence to occur this week, but if something does occur, it will likely be to the upside, with the SPX being the index that would do it. HSI Index generated a relatively uneventful inside week but did close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 24466 will be seen this week. The index did close just 49 points below the multi-month weekly closing high at 25388 (closed at 25339), meaning that the probabilities do favor the uptrend continuing. The multi-month high is at 25766. Above that level there is no intraweek resistance until 26229 is reached and that is a somewhat minor resistance. To the downside, a drop below 24887 would generate some new selling interest.
GOLD(Dec 2025 chart), like the indexes, Gold generated a 1.8% rally after the Powell announcement on Friday. Lower interest rates does help inflation go up. Gold did generate a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $3423 will be seen this week. No new signals were given on any chart but the green weekly close does keep the possibility of the uptrend continuing. On a daily closing basis, the $3452 level is resistance ($3438 on a weekly closing basis), which if broken would suggest the all-time high daily close at $3501 ($3491 on a weekly closing basis) would be tested and possibly broken. To the downside, a daily close below $3358 ($3379 on a weekly closing basis) would be a decent negative. Evidently the fundamental picture, as well as the charts, favor the bulls. OIL generated an uneventful inside week but did close green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 63.93 will be seen this week. No signals of any consequence occurred but the rally that did occur did take away quite a bit of ammunition from the bear's hands. A daily close above 63.96 would give a short-term edge to the bulls for a bit more of a recovery rally, with the 64.58-65.16 level as the objective (on a daily closing basis). Oil closed on Friday at 63.66, meaning that the bulls do have the probabilities in favor (though slightly). At this time, there doesn't seem to be anything of consequence that will happen to Oil, in either direction.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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MENTIONS For this week
What happened this past week means that sales are the only thing that can be considered at this time. Having said that, sales are not necessarily offering a high probability of success (perhaps no better than 55-45), which means the sales done have to be carefully hand-picked, and even then, the ratings on the trades will not be high.
In looking at a lot of charts this week and this coming week being the end of the month, most of the stocks I looked at are going to close near the high of the month, meaning that they are going to be better shorts next week than this week. Having said that, I did find two stocks that for its "own" reasons, suggest that this week, shorting them can be considered.
RBLX Friday Closing Price - 117.52
RBLX is a global platform that bring people together through game playing. The stock has recently soared from $50 to $150 (tripled in price) over the past 4 months. Most rating companies have it rated as a buy (or strong buy) with a $175 objective. None of the above are reasons to short the stock. Having said that, the stock has lost $12.7 million in value over the past 16 days due to allegations of child endangerment and exploitation, with multiple lawsuits filed by families and state attorneys general in 2025. Further negative coverage highlights issues with addictive game design, financial exploitation of users and developers, and persistent moderation failures.
Because of the above news and in looking at the chart, RBLX generated a breakaway/runaway gap to the downside that made the stock generate a sell signal as well as a failure signal that looms negative. From what I read about these problems, they are not likely to go away anytime soon. This fundamental and chart situation has opened to opportunity to short the stock with a very good risk/reward ratio.
The breakaway gap in RBLX is between 135.65 and 135.08 and the runaway gap is between 124.97 and 121.30. The sell signal on the daily closing chart was given when it closed below 118.12. To the downside, there is absolutely no intraweek support until the 100.00 level is reached, and even then, the support is very, very minor.
This short trade is absolutely a gamble given that what the company produces in very popular and in high demand. By the same token, the child endangerment problems that have surfaced is also something that most people stay away from. That makes this trade attractive is that the risk/reward ratio is very good and the present momentum (as well as the charts) are in favor of the bears.
Evidently, closure of the breakaway gap at 124.97 would be a signal to cover the shorts immediately. Nonetheless, in looking at the daily closing chart, a confirmed close above 118.12 would also be a valid reason to cover the shorts. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 121.30 will be seen this week. It is not unusual for the traders in such a fundamentally strong stock to test (and even get into) the gap to try to close it and get rid of that negative. This means that this week, RBLX could give the bears a good opportunity to short the stock at an attractive entry point that has a close by stop loss point that is dependable, as far as determining the future of the stock.
Sales of RBLX above 121.30 and using a stop loss at 124.97 and having a minimum 100.65 (minor daily close support) offers a risk/reward ratio of 5.6-1. My rating on the trade is 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
GRPN Friday's Closing Price - 26.69
GRPN is a global marketplace that connects consumers with local merchants by offering discounted goods and services. There are 5 rating companies following the stock, where 2 are bullish, 1 is somewhat bullish and 2 are bearish. The high outlook if for $47 and the low outlook is $17. Having said that, recent news as well as the charts, suggest the lower number (or at least lower than Friday's closing price) is the most likely.
One recent problem that has crept up on GRPN is that the shares tumbled 8% following a critical report by short-seller Captain's Log, which cast doubt on the company's recent performance and questioned the sustainability of its business model. The report alleges that Groupon's purported turnaround, particularly in its North America Local segment, is misleading and accuses the company of engaging in questionable accounting practices.
Chart-wise, GRPN has dropped 29% in price over the past three weeks and closed near the low of the week on Friday, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 26.26 will be seen this week. On the monthly chart, the stock is having a key reversal, having made a new 49-month high and now trading below last month's low. On the daily chart, the stock generated a sell signal 3 weeks ago when it broke the 29.06 level, which has now been successfully tested, meaning the downtrend is continuing.
To the downside and on the daily closing chart, GRPN has some very, very minor support at 25.22 but then nothing until the previous 24 month daily closing high at 19.89 is reached, That level also finds that the 200-day MA, currently at 19.96, is there to offer additional support. As such, that area is the target of this mention.
To the upside, GRPN now shows intraweek resistance at last week's high at 29.52, and given that if the stock goes above that high this week, it would suggest that the move down is over, that should be 100% reason to cover. Nonetheless and on the intraday 10-minute chart, the 200 10-minute MA is at 27.76 and that line has not been broken (or even tested) for the past 10 days, and if the downtrend is to continue immediately, that line should not be broken. The previous 10-minute intraweek high (above that line) is at 28.38 As such, my stop loss on the trade will be at 28.48.
This all means that if GRPN is shorted at Friday's closing price of 26.69 and the stop loss is at 28.38 and the objective is 19.96, the risk/reward ratio is 3.75-1. My rating on the trade is 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest.
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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BCTX made its all-time low at .61 13-days ago and that low was successfully tested on Thursday (on the intraday chart), with a low at .63. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at .79 than below last week's low at .63. If the stock does go above last week's high and then gets above the last 20-days high at .82, a successful and confirmed retest of the low will have occurred (on the daily chart), which in turn would likely generate a short covering rally. A rally above the 6-week high at .84 would offer "open air" up to 2.98. The .84 level is pivotal resistance. One very important note. The board of the company approved a 10-1 reverse stock split that goes into effect on Monday. This means that based on the close on Friday at .70, the stock will be at 7.00 on Monday, which also means that the 8.40 level is pivotal resistance, while the 6.10 level is pivotal support. One potential negative is that with reverse splits, traders usually go for a break of support. LXRX generated an uneventful inside week with a red weekly close. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.24 will be seen this week. The is intraweek resistance at 1.27, which if broken would suggest the 9-month intraweek high made 7 weeks ago at 1.43 would be tested. If that level is broken, there is open air above to the 200-week MA, currently at 1.94. To the downside, there is short-term support at 1.12 (which should not be broken if this recent uptrend is to continue) and then at 1.00, which if broken would put the stock into a sideways trend between .78 and 1.43. VWDRY got some positive news this week, in the way of an announcement from the Trump administration that will be giving tax credits for wind-driven energy. The stock gapped up on Monday and made a 11-month intraweek high. The stock closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.22 will be seen this week. There is open air above up to the 200-week MA, currently at 7.95. There is pivotal intraweek resistance at 8.30, which if broken, would offer a target of 9.65. To the downside, intraweek support is now found at 6.72. ZLAB generated an outside week with a higher high and a lower low than the previous week's trading range. The stock did generate a red weekly close and a close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 33.31 than above last week's high at 36.77. Having said that and in looking at the daily chart, on Friday the stock closed on the high of the day, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 35.15 will be seen on Monday, meaning the week is likely to start on a positive note. It is clearly defined though, that last week's trading range is key for this week. A break below 33.31 will strongly suggest that the 200-day MA, currently at 31.81, will be visited. On the other side of the coin, a break above 36.77 would suggest 39.77 will be visited. The monthly close is on Friday and so far the stock is having an inside month, with the high of the month being 39.64 and the low being 33.17. The stock is in an uptrend and the 36.14 level has "some" meaning (but somewhat minor) for the monthly close. A close above that level would keep the uptrend totally alive. A close above 37.40 would add ammunition to the bull's arsenal. A close below 30.14 would derail the uptrend.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 35.04. 2) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.18. 3) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.513 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.18. 4) BCTX - Averaged long at 7.825 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at .697. 5) TCN - Covered shorts at 81.72. Averaged short at 82.85. Profit on the trade of $226 per 100 shares (2 mentions). 6) MMM - Covered shorts at 156.32. Shorted at 159.66. Profit on the trade of $344 pere 100 shares. 7) OUST - Purchased at 31.52 and 30.61. Liquidated at 30.63. Loss on the trade of $87 per 100 shares (2 mentions). 8) VKTX - Purchased at 24.96. Liquidated at 23.63. Loss on the trade of $133 per 100 shares.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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