DOW Friday Closing Price - 47562
SPX Friday Closing Price - 6840
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 25858
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2479

All indexes (with the exception of the RUT) made new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs this past week, meaning that the earnings and economic reports last week did not show any reason to believe that the rally might be coming to an end. Having said that, the fact that the RUT did not accomplish the same is a potential stumbling block as it means that the rally continues only due to some stocks and not to the overall market. One additional possible negative is that all indexes closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, opening the door for a potential negative week in the first week of November. By the same token, the big stocks are likely to continue "running the show" and given that November and December are known to be "seasonal" up months, it does mean that the probabilities do not favor a correction happening at this time.

From here on in, earnings reports will no longer be a factor as all the big and consequential companies have already reported earnings. As such and with this week having some big economic reports due out (such as the ISM index and Jobs reports), attention will shift back to the economy and here is where some problems might be seen given that all the previous economic reports have begun to show a slowdown of the economy. Nonetheless, the slowdown being shown has been minor in nature (so far). The 3 main indexes do show a weekly up gap and closure of the gap is the likely target, given that nothing fundamentally positive occurred with the economy last week that supports the weekly gap formation. As such, closure of the gaps (DOW at 47326, SPX at 6807, and NASDAQ at 25418) is likely to happen.

Having said all of the above, the bulls do remain in control and the probabilities of anything causing that control to wane, are not in view right now. The soonest that a decent probability of a small catalytic event occurring will not be seen until December 10th when the Fed meets again to decide on the interest rate scenario.

Nonetheless and for the sake of offering what chart levels are important, here are the levels to watch. In the DOW, a daily close below 46590 would give a slight short-term edge to the bears and an intraweek break below 45452 would be a clear signal of a correction occurring. In the SPX those same levels are at 6599 and at 6552, and in the NASDAQ those levels are at 25236 and at 24207. None of these levels are likely to be in play this week (or even this month).

The index that is likely to have the attention of the traders this week (and this month) is the RUT. The small cap stocks are not truly participating in this rally and if the rally is to continue unabated (like a runaway freight train), this index will need to be a part of it (to some degree). By the same token, if this index gives any kind of a sell signal, the traders will begin to have viable doubts as to the rally continuing in the other indexes. As such, this index will be in the view of the traders this month. Here are the chart levels in play. To the upside, the index made a new all-time intraweek high 3 weeks ago at 2541 but has failed to break that high in the last 2 weeks. The bulls need that high to be broken, in order for keep doubts of the market from coming into play. The index generated a red weekly close this week and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2465 will be seen this week. On both and intraweek and on a daily closing basis, a confirmed break below 2394 would be a strong negative sign. With the index closing on Friday at 2479, a rally of more than 62 points or a drop of more than 83 points would be indicative. Both of these levels are close enough that the attention to this index will be high among the traders.

HSI (Chinese index) generated a negative reversal week that does strengthen the idea that the index has found a top to this rally. If it goes below this week's low next week (likely due to the fact it closed on the low of the week), last week's high at 26617 will become the needed/required intraweek retest of the rally high 27381. The index also closed red for the week, meaning that the previous week's close at 26160 is now also a successful retest of the weekly closing low at 26128 that gave the sell signal. There is short-term daily close support at 25781 that if broken, would suggest a drop down to the 25400 level would occur. Daily close resistance is found at 26128 and short-term pivotal at 26443.

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GOLD(Dec 2025 chart) generated a 2nd red week and closed in the middle of the week, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at $4123 or going below last week's low at $3901. Gold has dropped 8.7% in the last 2 weeks, suggesting that at a minimum, it is now in a corrective phase. The fundamental picture for the short-term has changed, meaning that this correction is expected and normal. If Gold goes below last week's low, there is open air below to the $3500 level (previous all-time high). Such a drop would mean a 20% correction, which is certainly within the possibilities of what a normal correction can be. If Gold goes above last week's high, it would suggest the all-time intraweek high at $4395 would be seeing a retest of it (which is also within normal chart action of a corrective phase). If that happens, there is daily close resistance at $4145 and indicative at $4213. There is no way at this time to predict with any certainty what this week's action will be.

OIL generated a negative reversal week, having gone above last week's high but then closing red. Oil closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 61.27 or going below last week's low at 59.66. In looking at the daily and weekly closing chart, neither the bulls nor the bears did anything of consequence. Then again, the bulls did get a slight edge the previous week but were unable to build on that, meaning that overall and for the midterm, the bears remain with the short-term edge. In using the daily closing chart, there is short-term resistance at 61.50 and short-term indicative resistance at 62.55/62.57. To the downside and also using the daily closing chart, the 60.15 level shows short-term indicative resistance. Like with Gold, this week is not clear as to what to expect.

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