Issue #933
Oct 19, 2025 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Tariff war, Dollar weakness, Gold soaring, economy weakening contiues to create uncertainty!
DOW Friday Closing Price - 46190 The bears failed to generate follow through to the downside (after last week's negative "key" reversal week) as all the indexes (with the exception of the RUT) generated an inside week. On the close on Friday (and also with the exception of the RUT), they all closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 46693, SPX at 6724, and NASDAQ at 24998) will be seen this week. On a positive note for the bulls though, the NASDAQ did generate a new all-time weekly closing high above the previous one at 24785 (closed at 24817). Having said all of the above, this past week was a full of questions that had no clear answers, meaning that the charts are not dependable at this time, The trade war with China increased (causing negative feelings) but then Trump made statements that put that increase in a measure of doubt. Earnings reports from the financial institutions this past week all exceeded expectations, giving the bulls some new ammunition but on the other side, Gold continued to surge while Oil and the Dollar fell to new multi-month lows. Clearly stated, nothing got cleared up this past week. This coming week is much the same, given that there are no catalytic economic reports due out until Friday, when the CPI number (inflation) is released (expected to be .3%). On the earning front, this coming week is all about DOW stocks reporting earnings. These stocks like GM, INTC and IBM are important but have not proven to be catalytic in the recent past. On Tuesday after the close though, NFLX does reports its earnings and that stock has proven to have an effect on the overall market. Then again, right now earnings reports have taken a back seat to the tariff war, as well as to the Fed and its interest rate decisions, suggesting that this coming week will not generate clarity to the situation. With the intraweek highs still being levels resistance, it is they that will be in the crosshairs this week. In the DOW that level is at 47049, With the index closing at 46190 on Friday and that level being 859 points higher, it is unlikely to get broken, The index does have daily close resistance at 46381 and the all-time high at 46758, the first level is likely to be seen this week. If broken, the bulls would only have the latter to break (in order to generate a new high for the rally). In the SPX those same levels are at 6764, at 6690 and at 6718. With the index closing on Friday at 6664, the latter two levels are in play. In the NASDAQ there are only two levels in play and that is the all-time intraweek high at 25195 and 25136. With the index closing on Friday at 24817, both of those levels are in play. Having said that and with only NFLX reporting this week on Tuesday pm, it is on the bulls to do something by Wednesday or it will be unlikely they can do anything of consequence after that. To the downside, there are "daily close" levels close by, which if broken would take away the edge the bulls got this week. In the DOW those levels are at 45947 and at 45497, with the first one giving the bears and edge and the latter being short-term pivotal. In the SPX they are at 6604 and at 6552 (same as with the DOW), and in the NASDAQ being 24761, at 24397 and at 24221. The latter two are the same as with the DOW and SPX but the former giving a failure signal against the bears. It is highly likely that the traders will await the Fed Rate decision on Wednesday the 28th (the following week) as that report is pivotal. In addition, and on that week 1-2 days after the Fed Rate decision, the big 3 earnings reports (AAPL, AMZN, and GOOGL) come out. As such, this coming week is likely to be somewhat uneventful, with the only possible exception being Trump and any decision (or statement) made by him. Once again, uncertainty is the "key word". HSI index made a new 6 week low and did generate a failure signal against the bulls, having closed on Friday below the previous multi-year high at 25338 (closed at 25247). Nonetheless, it could have been worse if it had closed below 25057. It is a negative sign but not yet a total game changer. The index did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 25118 will be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, there is short-term but minor support at 24808 (24998 on daily closing basis) and then pivotal support at 24372 (24507 on a daily closing basis). To the upside, a daily close above 25910 would negate last weeks negative action.
GOLD(Dec 2025 chart) continued the run, having for the 7th week in a row make new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs ($4391 intraweek and $4213 on a weekly closing basis). Nonetheless and on this occasion, Gold did generate a negative reversal day on Friday, having made the new all-time high on that day and then going below the previous day's low at $4314, and closing below it, suggesting that the possibility of an exhaustion-type top may have been made. Gold did close in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting that it could be the case. Over the past 9 weeks, Gold has rallied 23.7% and that is certainly more than the fundamentals suggest it could have risen. This too suggests that $4391 could be the top to this rally and that building a new support base is likely to happen over the next few weeks. With the only built support being at $4070 (on a daily closing basis), that would likely be the objective for this week. OIL generated a new 47-month weekly closing low and in the process broke the last weekly close support built until the $52 level is reached, By the same token, the intraweek support at 55.02 held up and will be the target this week. If broken, the pivotal weekly close support broken (at 58.29) will be confirmed. On a daily closing basis, resistance is now found at 59.63, which if broken would suggest this week's break will be negated. There is no fundamental news scheduled for the short-term, suggesting the bears will continue to be in control, which is turn suggests that the $50-$52 level will be seen sometime over the next few weeks.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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MENTIONS For this week
Once again, I have no new mentions at this time, but I will be monitoring the daily action and will mention something if the chart warrants it and will give you the mention as I find it. At this time and with the charts I follow daily (did not look elsewhere), I did not find anything to do that has a good probability rating as well as a good risk/reward ratio.
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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BCTX did get down to the recently established intraweek support at 10.55, having made an intraweek low at 10.76 on Tuesday. The stock then rallied to close to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 12.76 and below last week's low at 10.76. The stock reports earnings a week from tomorrow (Monday the 26th before the open), suggesting that nothing of consequence will happen this week but because of the recent positive action, it does suggest the bulls will have the edge on the close this Friday. Any drop below 10.55 would be a negative, while any rally above 13.60 would be a positive. Stock closed on Friday at 11.85. GRPN generated an uneventful inside week but did close green. Nonetheless, the stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 20.11 will be seen this week. There is intraweek support at 19.94 as well as daily close support at 19.64, which if broken, would generate new selling interest. Any daily close above 22.37 would negate the negative scenario. GSTRF generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 8-week intraweek high and then closing below the previous week's low, and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .364 will be seen this week. On a daily closing basis, there is pivotal support at .346. Any daily close above .46 would negate this outlook. LXRX generated a red week and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.39 will be seen this week. The downside target is 1.35, which is the level (on a daily closing basis) that is expected to build a support level there. Intraweek support is at 1.28, which if broken, would give the bulls some new short-term ammunition. Any daily close above 1.53 would negate this week's scenario and a close above 1.64 would keep the uptrend intact. MMM generated an uneventful inside week but did close green, taking away some of the ammunition that the bears had obtained the previous week by making a new 9-week low. The likely reason for the lack of confirmation of the break is that the company reports earnings this week on Tuesday AM and the company is expected to once again beat the earnings estimate at $2.15. Having said that though, the bulls failed to generate a failure signal against the bears, having closed at 152.64 and the previous low weekly close support that was broken is at 152.81. A daily close below 148.75 would be a decently strong short-term negative sign, while a daily close above 155.12 would be the opposite. The earnings report is the key this week. TNC generated an uneventful inside week but in doing so, last week's break of weekly close support was confirmed. The stock did generate a green weekly close and closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 81.19 than below last week's low at 77.66. Nonetheless, the 200-week MA is currently at 80.52 and the weekly close support that got broken is at 79.98, meaning that the bulls failed to negate the break as the close on Friday was at 79.56. The 200-day MA (currently at 80.10) also got broken last week and on Wednesday the stock closed at 79.96 and the closed red on Thursday and closed at 79.56 on Friday. This does suggest that if the bulls can generate a confirmed daily close above 80.30 this week, that the break will be negated and some new buying (as well as short-covering) will occur. If the recent low daily close at 78.21 is broken, the bears will gain total control with at least a drop down to the $74-$75 level occurring. VWDRY generated a positive reversal week, having gone below last week's low and then closing unchanged but near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.80 will be seen this week. Having said that, for the past 2 weeks, the stock has traded sideways between 6.51 and 6.72 (based on a daily closing basis), meaning that the traders are evidently waiting for some catalyst to occur. At this time, there is no clear view as to what that catalyst may be but it is clear that any daily close above or below those two levels, will generate movement. With the stock in an uptrend, the probabilities favor the bulls. There is daily and weekly close resistance at 7.18, which if broken would give a 7.72 objective, which is where the 200-week MA is currently at. Any weekly close below 5.98 would negate the uptrend. ZLAB generated a new 8-month low weekly close, breaking a pivotal weekly close support level at 28.84 (closed on Friday at 28.29). The stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 27.81 will be seen this week. Having said that, there is still pivotal intraweek support at 26.67 that needs to be broken, for the bears to gain full control. If broken, a drop down to the 22.28-22.82 level would probably be seen. Such a drop would negate everything the bulls have accomplished this year (unlikely to happen but then again the trade war with China has been a key element this year). Intraweek resistance is now found at 30.40 and if broken, then at 32.63, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. A break above 33.46 would negate this negative scenario. There has been no new news on the company, and the earnings report is not due out for another 18 days (Nov 6th).
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 28.29. 2) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.67. 3) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.513 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.42. 4) BCTX - Averaged long at 78.25 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 11.85. 5) GRPN - Shorted at 26.66. Stop loss at 27.89. Stock closed on Friday at 20.27. 6) TXN - Shorted at 81.37. Stop loss at 83.71. Stock closed on Friday at 79.57. 7) MMM - Shorted at 156.43. Stop loss now at 155.32. Stock closed on Friday at 152.64
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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