Issue #932
Oct 12, 2025
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Negative fundamental news causes the indexes to drop strongly. Correction started?

DOW Friday Closing Price - 45479
SPX Friday Closing Price - 6562
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 24221
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2476

The SPX, the NASDAQ, and the RUT made new all-time intraweek highs but then generated a "key" reversal week, having closed out the week below the previous week's lows. Every index dropped around 3% on Friday, on the news that China was imposing quota restrictions on "rare earth" minerals. This statement was the followed with Trump saying that starting next month, he would be imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese imports. This is now becoming a trade war between these two powers, and such a war is a negative to the economy of both nations. If these actions remain in place as stated, the probability of a correction having started will be high.

Chart-wise, all indexes generated a sell signal on both the daily and weekly closing charts and closed on the lows of the week suggesting further downside below last week's lows will be seen this week. In the DOW that is below 45470, in the SPX that is below 6550, in the NASDAQ that is below 24207, and in the RUT that is below 2393.

It is important to note that the dichotomy between the DOW and the NASDAQ did not change as both indexes dropped 2.8% this week. For the past few years, the latter index would have dropped more than the former index, but that did not happen. In addition, and in listening to the guest analysts on Bloomberg TV, almost across the board they stated that this drop would be a buying opportunity and that a reversal to the upside could be seen as early as this week. At this time though, it is impossible to make any such determination, especially given that both of the actions taken this week by China and the U.S. will have some long-term negative implications if they remain as stated.

The key index this week will be the DOW, given that the previous all-time daily and weekly closing highs will likely be tested this week. Those levels are at 44910 and 45014, which is 1% lower than Friday's close. In the SPX and the NASDAQ those levels are 7-8% lower than Friday's close and highly unlikely to be in play this week. If the DOW does manage to give a confirmed daily close below 45014 and then on Friday, closes below 44910, a failure signal of consequence will be given, which in turn will generate automatic computer and algorithm selling. Such a scenario would then suggest that the other 2 indexes would drop down to "their" former all-time daily closing highs at 6144 in the SPX and at 22175 in the NASDAQ in the next few weeks, making this a true correction.

To the upside, the levels to watch for this week and on a confirmed daily closing basis, are as follows: In the DOW at 46030, in the SPX it is at 6615, in the NASDAQ it is at 24397. Those were the levels that when broken on Friday, generated the sell signals. If those sell signals are negated this week (on a confirmed basis), some of the selling pressure will be ameliorated.

This situation as is being seen this year is unique, and as such, very difficult to evaluate with any degree of certainty. The fundamental outlook cannot be determined with any clarity, meaning that the charts will be the key to what the traders will do, which is "follow the money".

HSI dropped 3.2% this past week and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 26238 will be seen this week. The index generated 5 red daily closes, meaning that it was already correcting downward before Thursday's announcement of the "rare earths" quota restrictions. On that news though, the index fell 1.8%. It does need to be mentioned that the index was already closed when Trump announced the 100% tariff increase Friday afternoon, suggesting further downside is likely to be seen this week. The index did generate a failure signal against the bulls, having closed below the previous 4+year daily and weekly closing high. Nonetheless, nothing else was broken (no sell signal given), meaning that the week was not all that indicative, other than to say that the rally has lost some of its momentum. Having said that, the index does have an intraweek and daily closing supports that are close by and if broken would generate new selling interest. Those two levels are at 26003 (on an intraweek basis) and at 26128 (on a daily and weekly closing basis. A break of those would suggest that the uptrend is over and that a correction is occurring. The index closed on Friday at 26290.


GOLD(Dec 2025 chart) continued the run, having for the 6th week in a row made new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs ($4081 intraweek and $4000 on a weekly closing basis. Gold did close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a very slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at $4081 than below last week's low at $3909. Nonetheless, the $4000 level is a psychological resistance area that would normally generate a slight pull back after reaching it, especially with the overbought condition and runaway freight train status of Gold. Having said that, the fundamental picture does continue to favor the bulls and that will remain a strong reason to think that higher levels are to come. There is some minor support at $3957, which if broken might give the bears a slight short-term edge.

OIL generated a new 21-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 58.22 will be seen this week. The fundamental outlook took an extra push downward with the problem between China and the U.S. that occurred on Friday. There is absolutely no intraweek support below until the 55.12/55.30 level (57.13 on a daily closing basis and 58.29 on a weekly closing basis) is reached. Oil closed on Friday at 58.31. This means that this week is highly important to Oil as a break of all of these levels would open the door for a drop all the way down to the $50 level. To the upside, a confirmed daily close above 60.48 would take away some of the new ammunition the bears obtained this week.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
MENTIONS For this week

At this time, I have no new mentions due to the major uncertainty that was seen at the end of last week. Nonetheless, I do expect things to get somewhat cleared up by Wednesday afternoon and if I see something to be done, I will email you the mention.

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Updates
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

BCTX generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 12.16 will be seen this week. Short-term pivotal support is found at 10.61 and resistance is now at last week's high at 13.60.

GRPN generated a new 5-month low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 19.87 will be seen this week. The stock closed at a short-term pivotal level (at 19.89 on both the daily and weekly closing charts) and if further downside is seen (on a closing basis), a failure signal will be given, wiping out the entire 5-month rally that took the stock up to the $37 level. There is further support at another previous daily closing high at 18.61, which if broken would give total control to the bears. This $20 level is also a major support level on the monthly closing chart. On an intraweek basis, the level to watch is 15.84, which if broken would mean the bulls have lost the battle. This $20 area was the mention's objective, meaning that consideration should be given to taking profits here this week. A green daily close on Monday would be a valid reason to cover the shorts.

GSTRF did nothing of consequence this week. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above or below last week's trading range (.415-.47). The two levels to watch on a daily closing basis is .48 and .3468. A close above the former or below the latter would be indicative.

LXRX generated a new 11-month intraweek, daily and weekly closing high but then fell back to close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.41 will be seen this week. The stock did get close to the 200-week MA, currently at 1.82, having gotten up to 1.66 this week. That line will remain a viable target, but it is possible that the bulls will attempt to establish a new support base at the 1.35 level (on a daily closing basis) as that was the previous 11-month high daily close. On an intraweek basis, the 1.28 level is short-term pivotal support.

MMM generated a 9-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 148.46 will be seen this week. The stock generated both a sell signal and a failure signal on the daily and weekly closing chart. Having said that and in looking at the daily chart, the 200-day MA is currently at 147.83, and it has held steady (unbroken) for the past 6 months, meaning that it will be in play and somewhat pivotal on a short-term basis. There is pivotal intraweek support at 144.25, which if broken would be a game changer. The 155.12 level is now short-term pivotal resistance on the daily closing chart. Like with GRPN, the stock has reached the objective and as such, taking profits should be considered.

TNC generated a negative reversal week as well as a 3+month intraweek, daily and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 77.52 will be seen this week. The bulls had a chance to break resistance, having come within $.96 cents of breaking a pivotal intraweek resistance but they failed, The stock not only generated sell signals across the board but also closed decisively below the 200-day and 200-week MA's, currently at 80.13 and at 80.53 (closed at 78.21). There is open air below down to 73.69, meaning that this is not a stock to cover the shorts this week unless a signal in favor of the bulls occurs. A confirmed daily close above 80.13 would be a reason to consider taking profits.

VWDRY generated a new 6-week intraweek and weekly closing high but it closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 6.86 or below last week's low at 6.53. Having said that, the bulls did confirm the previous week's close above the weekly close resistance level between 6.51 and 6.54 (closed at 6.67), suggesting the bulls have the edge. A daily close below 6.51 or above 7.18 would generate action.

ZLAB generated a red weekly close, and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 29.82 will be seen this week. A sell signal was given on the weekly closing chart when the stock closed below the most recent low weekly close at 30.76 (closed on Friday at 30.24). In addition, the stock closed below the 200-week MA, currently at 31.50. Both of these factors are short-term negatives. There were 2 causes for the drop with the first one being a sell rating by a company called Weiss, and the second one being the threat/promise that Trump made to increase tariffs on China to 100% starting in November. Having said that, there are 8 other rating companies of which 2 have the stock on hold and the other 6 as a buy with an average upside of $76 by the end of the year. One positive thing is that the area between 28.84 and 29.24 (on a weekly closing basis) is a very well established and decently strong support level and with the stock closing above that level on Friday, the negatives are likely to be very short-term (1-3 weeks) or even be negated this week. A daily close above 33.89 would negate this weakness, and a close below 28.40 would exacerbate it.


1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 30.24.

2) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.67.

3) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.513 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.49.

4) BCTX - Averaged long at 78.25 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 12.40.

5) GRPN - Shorted at 26.66. Stop loss at 27.89. Stock closed on Friday at 19.89.

6) TXN - Shorted at 81.37. Stop loss at 83.71. Stock closed on Friday at 78.21.

7) MMM - Shorted at 156.43. Stop loss now at 155.32. Stock closed on Friday at 148.75


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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