DOW Friday Closing Price - 46247
SPX Friday Closing Price - 6643
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 24508
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2434

This past week and across the board, all indexes generated a negative reversal week, having all made new all-time intraweek highs and then closing red. Nonetheless, the negative reversal week was not very convincing that a top to the rally has been found, given that with the exception of the RUT, the bulls managed to close around the middle of the week's trading range, leaving the door open for further upside next week, if and when the possibly catalytic reports (ISM Index and Jobs) due out on Wednesday and Friday are positive. It does need to be mentioned that all the reports from last week (Durable Goods, GDP revision and PCE prices) were either positive or as expected, meaning no new ammunition for the bears was given.

The end of the month happens on Tuesday and with no reports of any consequence (other than the Consumer Confidence number) due out by then, the probabilities are close to 99% that the indexes will close out the month green. This means that not only August but also September will end up bucking the seasonally tendency to go down. September has always been known to normally be the worst month of the year. In fact, in the past 50 years, only 17 times has September bucked the seasonal down-month trend and both August and September together bucking the trend has only happened 14 times in the last 80 years. Having said all of that, this year has been a big exception in many ways as we have a president that is doing things that has never been done before, meaning seasonality and probability have not been in play.

Nonetheless, it is very difficult to see/imagine things getting even better for the rest of the year. This week does have some very important things happening, beginning with on Monday, Congress trying to avoid a Government shutdown, which if it does not happen, it would be a catalytic event. In addition and on Wednesday, Trump has announced new tariffs on Drugs, Heavy Trucks and Furniture will go in effect with some drugs getting a 100% tariff increase. It is presently unknown how that will affect the market but common sense suggests it will not be a positive.

The market is generally overbought and more of the previous tariff increases effects are likely to start coming out this coming month, one again suggesting that the probabilities to favor the bears "slightly".

Here are the levels to watch for on the upside: To the upside, it is evident that another new all-time high (after these important reports come out) would generate still even more buying interest and less ability for the bears to get ammunition. As such, here are last week's all-time intraweek highs. In the DOW it is at 46714, in the SPX it is at 6699, in the NASDAQ it is above 24781, and in the RUT it is at 2488. It is also important to note that the monthly charts do suggest that new all-time highs will be made in October, given that the indexes are likely to close near the highs of the month. Nonetheless, the monthly charts are never as indicative of what is likely to happen as the weekly charts are, especially when catalytic reports and news is due out.

To the downside, the indexes all generated an intraweek low last week that seems to be short-term pivotal support. In the DOW that is at 45785, in the SPX that is at 6569, in the NASDAQ that is at 24186, and in the RUT that is at 2393. Nonetheless, both the SPX and the NASDAQ do show a further intraweek support at 6602 and at 23999 that would also need to be broken in order to be confirmed or convincing of the breaks.

There is nothing more that I can point to on the charts at this time, given that at this moment the chart have little say in what is likely to happen. This is a fundamental week where news "calls the shots", at least as far as the interpretation of the news.

HSI Chinese index generated a red week and close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 26005 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, no signals were given on the weekly closing chart. On the daily closing chart, a sell signal was given, suggesting that the previous 4-year daily closing high at 25829 will be seen this coming week.

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GOLD(Dec 2025 chart) continued the run, having for the 4th week in a row make new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs. Gold did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $3824 will be seen this week. The new intraweek support level is at $3749, which if broken, could signal the beginning of a small correction. Gold closed at $3809 on Friday. The probabilities favor Gold continuing higher this week. The news due out is not likely to affect Gold negatively in any way, but on the opposite side, it could easily give the bulls more ammunition.

OIL generated a positive reversal week (having gone below the previous week's low and then closing above the previous week's high) which does suggest that for now, no further downside (below the recent lows) will be seen (unless some negative fundamental news comes out). Oil generated 2 buy signals on the daily closing chart and 1 on the weekly closing chart, meaning that the bulls now have the short-term edge. Nonetheless, the key word is "short-term", given that the bulls had a chance to make a bull statement on Friday but didn't, when they failed to close above 67.33, which would have added a failure signal against the bears (on the weekly closing chart). Oil had a high last week at 66.42 and closed on Friday at 65.72. This does suggest that Oil will now be trading between 62.84 (or perhaps no lower than 64.00) and perhaps as high at 68.84 with perhaps a slight chance of getting up to 69.70 intraweek. On a weekly closing basis, that trading range is likely to be 64.07 to 67.33.

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