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Issue #937 
Nov 9, 2025 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls surrender the recent gains due to the government shutdown impasse that is affecting the economy.
DOW Friday Closing Price - 46987 The index market saw a correction this past week with a drop of about 3% in all the indexes. There were 2 main reasons for the drop, beginning with continuing data showing that the economy is slowing down and investors are losing confidence (lowest Consumer Confidence number in 3 years came out on Tuesday, and close to the lowest ever) and then ending with fears that the AI industry may be overdone to the upside. It is important to note that from a chart point of view, this was not an unexpected move down as generally and before resuming an uptrend, the previous all-time high weekly closes get tested. Nonetheless, on Friday, the indexes were trading convincingly below those levels and if it wasn't because the leader of the Democrat party in Congress (Chuck Schumer) offered a possible solution to ending the government shutdown, the indexes would have generated a failure signal. In the end and for that reason alone, the indexes were able to close above the previous all-time high weekly closes, meaning that chart-wise this correction has not yet taken any longer-term meaning. Having said all of the above, the fundamental picture is very cloudy and given that due to the government shutdown, the Jobs report did not come out on Friday (no one knows when it will come out), there is no way that the traders can get a better idea of the economic situation that is happening now, meaning that they are more likely to be cautious than aggressive. With this scenario and if no new news comes out, the traders are likely to depend on the charts to tell them what to do. Here is what to look for. In the DOW and to the upside, an intraweek break above 47460 will give the bulls some ammunition. To the downside, a daily close below 46590, will generate both a sell signal and a failure signal against the bulls. In the SPX and to the upside, an intraweek break above 6829 will give some ammunition to the bulls, while a daily close below 6699 would do the same (sell and failure signal) for the index. In the NASDAQ, those same levels at 26132 to the upside and 24879 to the downside. It is evident based on the fundamental and chart picture that the NASDAQ is the index to watch this week, especially to the downside. On the other side of the coin, the RUT also has some indicative power, especially to the upside. The index did break down in an intraweek indicative way this past week and the index made a new 6-week intraweek low. The break was not confirmed on any of the closing charts, meaning that if the index can confirm the failure of the breakdown with a daily close above 2464, the bulls will step in again. By the same token, if the break of intraweek support is confirmed with a daily close below 2394, selling will likely be seen across the board on all indexes. Yesterday (Saturday) it was announced by Trump that Schumer's proposal will not be followed (as far as ending the shutdown), meaning that the probabilities do favor the bears this coming week. It that does occur and by any chance these intraweek supports (DOW at 45452, SPX at 6550 and NASDAQ at 24207) get broken, a full blown correction will be happening. It is certainly clear that for the bulls to get full control back and resume the uptrend, the fundamental picture (economic reports) need to show positive information. While the shutdown continues, that is not a tangible possibility. HSI Index generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low but then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 26493 will be seen next week. Having said that, on a weekly closing basis, it was slightly positive as it did close above a previous high and a previous low weekly closes at 26126 and 26160 (closed at 26241 but it was not sufficiently above those closes as to be a statement. There are 2 levels of daily close support that have some short-term indicative power. To the downside, the 25829 level and to the upside the 26908 level, which if broken would give additional ammunition to the bears or the bulls. Index closed on Friday at 26241.
GOLD(Dec 2025 chart) generated a non-indicative inside week but did close green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $4042 will be seen this week. In looking at the daily closing chart, the $3960 level to the downside and the $4065 level to the upside and short-term pivotal. The daily chart does lean more to the downside than the upside, with a triangle formation seemingly in place. The triangle formation, if broken to the downside (break below $3890, offers a $3551 objective. Nonetheless, a move above $4059 would negate the triangle formation. OIL generated a red week and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 58.85 will be seen this week. The chart is leaning to the downside but there are no pivotal levels nearby that would be meaningful. A daily close above 62.55 or below 57.46 would generate quite a bit of new buying or selling interest, but the chart does not suggest any of that will be seen this week. As such, probabilities do favor a bit more downside will be seen this week but not indicative for the longer term. Oil closed on Friday at 59.75.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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MENTIONS For this week
I have no new mentions this week. The uncertainty and action seen this past week does favor the bears (short positions) but the bulls have been able to pull themselves out of negative situations repeatedly over the past few months, making short positions not dependable or offering good risk/reward ratios at present prices. By the same token, the action this past week as well as the fundamental picture being very clouded, purchases are also not dependable.
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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BCTX generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.55 will be seen this week. Short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 14.08, which if broken would mean that the $20 area would once again be a short-term target. There is some intraday resistance at 12.08, which if broken and confirmed (on the 60-minute chart) would suggest that the 13.60 would become the immediate target. As far as support, the 10.65 level is now support on that same 1-hour chart. GSTRF generated a new 15-week intraweek low where the short-term pivotal support at .30 was broken. The break was confirmed on the daily chart (when it closed below .35) but not on the weekly closing chart as the.29 level held up (closed at .33 on Friday). On a daily closing basis, that .357 level is now pivotal as a confirmed close above that level would negate the break. The .29 level is now the new support on the daily closing chart. LXRX reported earnings and though they seemed to be slightly better than expected, the stock generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high but then closing below the previous week's low. The stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.18 will be seen this week. The stock generated a new sell and failure signal (against the bulls) on the daily closing chart (closing below the support at 1.33) but that was not confirmed on the weekly closing chart as the stock closed above the short-term important and indicative support at 1.24 (closed at 1.25 on Friday). The earnings report does not support much lower prices but a drop down to the 1.10 level seems probable. Any daily close above 1.33 would negate the break. Any green close this Friday would also be a positive. NB generated a new 7-week intraweek low and did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.38 will be seen this week. The stock did close on Friday below the previous all-time high weekly close at 7.13, as well as below a minor but possibly indicative weekly close support at 6.36 (closed at 6.16 on Friday. Nonetheless and on the daily closing chart, the stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday, having made the week's low on that day but then closing green and on the high of the day, suggesting the first course of action for this week (on Monday) will be to the upside and above Friday's high at 6.22. On a daily closing basis, the 7.13 level is now short-term pivotal resistance. Daily close support is found at 4.48. USAR reported earnings and they were lower than expected. Because of that, the stock generated a new 7-week intraweek low but then closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 19.00 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock did generate a failure signal against the bulls, having closed below the previous all-time high at 18.55 (closed at 17.36). The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday. Having made the week's low at 14.85 on that day and then closing above Thursday's high. In addition, the important and indicative 200-day MA (currently at 13.96) was not broken, suggesting that buying interest is found in this lower area between $14 and $15. Indicative daily close resistance is found at 19.04. Short-term indicative daily close support is at 15.66. VWDRY reported earnings and they were better than expected. The stock generated a new 14-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week' suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.92 will be seen this week. The stock closed above the 200-week MA (currently at 7.68) which should now be support. A weekly close above 8.10 would confirm the break of the line. Indicative daily close support is now found at 6.97. ZLAB reported earnings and they were lower than expected and the stock made a new 14-month intraweek and weekly closing low. The report was not all that bad, given that the earnings were actually better than expected but the income obtained was less than expected. Nonetheless, the bears do have short-term control, not only suggesting the stock will go below this past week's low at 21.52 but that the $20 level will be tested. The $20 level was the original breakout point from which the stock climbed up to the 44.34 level. The fundamental picture (the drugs that the company is producing) is quite positive, strongly suggesting that if the stock gets down to the $20 level that strong buying will be seen. Indicative weekly close resistance is now found at 25.30. A confirmed weekly close above that level would negate this break and give the bulls back the edge. On the daily closing chart, the 28.14 level (if broken) would give back the edge to the bulls and the 29.15 level would mean a full recovery in on the way.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.90. 2) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.92. 3) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.513 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.25. 4) BCTX - Averaged long at 78.25 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 11.31. 5) GSTRF - Purchased at .42. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .33. 6) NB - Purchased at 6.88. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.16 7) USAR - purchased at 18.29. Stop loss is at 13.65. Stock closed on Friday at 17.36.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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