Issue #938
Nov 16, 2025 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Uncertainty reigns as economic reports delayed or canceled.
DOW Friday Closing Price - 47147 On a weekly closing basis, the index market had a very uneventful week, given that the DOW and the SPX generated a positive reversal week, but it was not convincing as they closed just a few points above last week's close and the NASDAQ closed a few points below last week's close. The RUT also closed below last week's low but did generate a sell signal that could be indicative but it was also by only a few points (5 points), also meaning that it is not yet a convincing sell signal. This action seen last week is because the important reports were not released due to the government shut down. The Jobs report will be released this Thursday but the CPI and PPI reports have not yet given a release date and it has been stated by the White House that those reports for October (supposed to come out next month), "will not" be released at all. Based on these facts, the traders are not able to evaluate the market until Thursday and even then the evaluation of the indexes cannot be made in a convincing way (unless the Jobs report is way out of line - unlikely), meaning that at this time this newsletter cannot give an truly valuable information. Having said that, the indexes did get down close to pivotal areas of support, which if broken, would generate computer and algorithm selling. As such, this newsletter today is simply about giving you the pivotal chart areas than cause automatic movement. Otherwise, it is likely that this week will also be more of the same as last week, which was uneventful. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW has pivotal support at 46495. The SPX has support at 6631 and then confirming-of-the-break support at 6550. The NASDAQ has pivotal support at 24207 and the RUT at last week's low at 2345. All indexes closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that they are "likely" to go below last week's lows. This does suggest that some of these supports will be broken. As such, attention will be keyed on the SPX and NASDAQ. The probabilities do not favor the bulls but for the sake of mentioning the levels of resistance above, which broken would give the edge back to the bulls, here they are. On an intraweek basis and in the DOW it is at 48040. In the SPX it is at 6869, in the NASDAQ it is at 25655 and in the RUT it is at 2478. It is unlikely that anything will happen until the Jobs report comes out on Thursday AM. HSI index did generate a red weekly close and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below 26263 will be seen this week. If that occurs, it will mean that last week's high at 27179 will become a successful retest of the rally high at 27381. Nonetheless, the weekly close support at 26485 was not broken (closed at 26572), meaning the successful retest of the high was not confirmed on the weekly closing chart. Like with the U.S. indexes, signs of a high to this rally having been made are there but need confirmation before the traders have confidence in following up on it next week. A daily close below 26128 would hand over the edge to the bears, while a daily close above 26908 would give back the edge to the bulls.
GOLD(Dec 2025 chart) generated a wild week, having moved up $240 above last week's high throughout the week and then giving up 90% back on Friday. This does make last week's high at $4249 into a possible needed/required retest of the all-time high at $4395. A drop below last week's low at $4005 would give that signal and a drop below the recent low at $3890 would confirm all of the above. A rally above last week's high would be a plus for the bulls. The probabilities though, do favor the bears. OIL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week intraweek low and then closing green and slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 61.28 than below last week's low at 58.93. Having said that, the week was uneventful as no indicative action occurred. The short term levels of intraweek resistance and support are clearly defined, with intraweek resistance being at 62.59 and intraweek support being at 56.35
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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MENTIONS For this week
I have no new mentions this week. The lack of economic information and action the past few weeks has generated uncertainty to a high degree and until that changes, there is little to be done in the market that has a decent probability rating. Having said that, there are a few exceptions and of the held stocks, I do plan to add position to either (or both) NB and USAR this week. Check out the updates below for desired entry points and stop loss levels. After Thursday when the Jobs report is due to come out, I may have further mentions. As of now though, I have none.
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Updates
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
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BCTX generated a new 8-week weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week. suggesting further downside below last week's low at 9.11 will be seen this week. There was no new news, meaning that this move is likely all chart oriented for a retest of the original breakout level at 8.69. The $10 demilitarized zone has now become resistance and the 11.65 level is now short-term pivotal resistance. GSTRF generated a new 15-week weekly closing and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .282 will be seen this week. There is intraweek support at .25. This is an important week for the stock, given that the .29 level (on a weekly closing basis) was the original breakout level, meaning that a red close this Friday would negate the rally up to the $1, while a green weekly close would open the door for the stock to start moving back up again. The .362 level is short-term pivotal resistance. LXRX made a new 5-week intraweek high and closed at the pivotal weekly close resistance at 1.49. The stock closed in the upper half of the weekly trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.64 will be seen this week, Intraweek resistance is found at 1.66, which if broken would suggest that the 200-week MA, currently at 1.75, would be tested. The stock reported earnings the previous week and they were better than expected, meaning that the probabilities do favor this happening. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 1.18, which if broken would negate all of the above. MMM generated a green weekly close but did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 163.97 than above last week's high at 172.56. If that occurs, last week's high would become a successful retest of 4-year intraweek high at 172.85. A break below the most recent low at 159.35 would mean that the stock would remain either on a long-term sideways trend or a downtrend (the latter a very small possibility), with a potential retest of the 200-month MA, currently at 119.23, to be seen within the next 6-9 months. Daily close support is found at 160.20, meaning that if the stock closes below the bottom of the $160 demilitarized zone (below 159.60), all of the above would gain further traction. Pivotal daily close resistance is found at 170.60. NB generated a new 8-week intraweek and weekly closing low but the bulls did manage to generate a very slight close above the mid-point of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 6.49 than below last week's low at 5.21. The $5 demilitarized zone is a proven weekly close support level, as well as a normal psychological support level as well. In addition, the week's low (as well as the multi-week low) was seen on Friday but then the stock generated a positive reversal day, as well as a close near the high of the day, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 6.21 will be seen on Monday. As such, the probabilities do favor the bulls this week. USAR made a new 8-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 13.93 will be seen this week. Having said that, the $14 demilitarized zone is established support of consequence, meaning that there are many supports here, such as the 200-day MA, currently at 14.06, Pivotal weekly close support at 13.86 (13.53 on a daily closing basis) and at 14.09, which was the original breakout point. As such and unless the outlook for the company is negative for the future, this whole areas should hold up. Short-term pivotal daily close resistance is now found at 17.72. I am planning to add positions this week. VWDRY generated a new 16+ month intraweek high but failed to confirm it when it closed below the 16+ month weekly close resistance at 8.12 (closed at 8.03). The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that further downside below last week's low at 7.88 will be seen this week. The 200-week MA is currently at 7.67 and that is probably the downside target as that line had not been broken to the upside for 18 months and as such, requires a successful retest of it, before the bulls climb aboard for more upside. It does bear mentioning that the stock has literally doubled in price over the past 7 months (from 3.96 to 8.50), meaning that further upside does need closer support levels to be built. Established intraweek support is now found at 7.34, which should not be broken unless the upside is finished (unlikely give the recent earnings report). Intraweek resistance is now found at 8.50, which if broken would have open air to 9.72. ZLAB generated another new 14-month intraweek and weekly closing low. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 21.25 will be seen this week. Having said all of that, this was the smallest trading range seen ($1.15) in the last 14 months, suggesting the bears are running out of ammunition. The $20 level is very important support and it is surprising the given the previous week's trading range of $5.73 (to the downside) that the $20 level was not reached this week. Last week's high at 22.40 is now considered short-term pivotal resistance, which if broken, would show open air above to the 25.25 level. . The $20 level was the original breakout point and given that the fundamentals do not suggest that the company is failing, it is doubtful that it will be broken. For now, the $20 level is support and the $25 is resistance. This trading range is likely to be the one seen during the next 1-3 weeks or until new information comes out.
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1) ZLAB - Averaged long at 65.50 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.75. 2) VWDRY - Averaged long at 8.68 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.02. 3) LXRX - Averaged long at 1.513 (7 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.49. 4) BCTX - Averaged long at 78.25 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 9.16. 5) GSTRF - Purchased at .42. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .29. 6) NB - Purchased at 6.88. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.88 7) USAR - purchased at 18.29. Stop loss is at 13.65. Stock closed on Friday at 14.49. 8) MMM - Shorted at 172.02. Stop lopss is at 172.95. Stock closed on Friday at 167.58.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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