DOW Friday Closing Price - 47716
SPX Friday Closing Price - 6849
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 25434
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2500

This past week the bulls were able to make a statement when both the DOW and the SPX made a new all-time weekly closing highs. Nonetheless, neither was confirmed on the intraweek chart, meaning that the bulls will need more this coming week to make it a "true" statement of strength. The new all-time highs were not only unexpected but lacked substance, given that the economic reports last week did not support such a move. The inflation reports showed an increase, and the Consumer Confidence number was down at a multi-year low. These reports should have affected the market negatively, but they were mainly ignored, given that they suggest that the Fed will be forced to generate another rate cut in December, which would supposedly be a positive event for the short-term.

This week the ISM Index report comes out Monday AM and the delayed (from last week) PCE inflation prices report comes out on Friday. In addition, Fed Chief Powell speaks on Tuesday morning. These reports are important as they will either confirm the need for a rate cut or negate it (if inflation is much higher).

The RUT led the way up this past week, having gained 5.5% in value and all the other indexes gaining less than 4%. This is actually a bit of a negative sign given that when small cap stocks lead the way, it normally means the uptrend is near a major top. If that continues this week and confirmation is given (new all-time high daily close above 2520), only the time frame for a major top to be formed would be in question. Adding to all of this scenario is that the NASDAQ (tech industry) remains the laggard among the indexes. That is always the opposite when the uptrend is to continue.

Having said all of the above, December is usually a good month for the bulls (seasonally speaking), suggesting that nothing of big consequence in either direction will be seen this month. Evidently, the Fed rate decision on Wednesday December 10th will be somewhat pivotal. At this time, the odds that the Fed will cut rates this month are at 85%. This does suggest that before the decision comes out, the traders will have that cut already factored in to the market price, meaning that what happens this week will likely be the most to happen for the month, to the upside.

These are the chart levels to watch this week. To the upside, it is evident that the all-time intraweek highs in the DOW and SPX are important. Those are at 48431 and at 6920 (respectively). The all-time high daily closes would also need to be broken, and they are at 48254 and at 6890. I will also be watching closely the intraweek high in the SPX at 6855 (6850 on a daily closing basis), because if the bulls fail to break it and a red close occurs first, it will mean that the index will have built a second successful retest of the all-time intraweek and daily closing high, and that would give new ammunition to the bears. With the index closing on Friday at 6448, this area will be "in play" starting on Monday. The RUT will also be playing an indicative role this week. The all-time intraweek high is at 2541 and there is a double top on the daily closing chart at 2520. If this index continues to outperform the other indexes, it will be indicative of a top being formed in the overall market.

To the downside, there are no levels close by that are pivotal. As such, it is unlikely that any sell signals will be given this week. There is one level to watch that could be indicative for the bears and that is the 6776 level in the SPX. There is a breakaway gap there that is a magnet for closure if no runaway gap to the upside occurs. A drop down to that level would be a sign that perhaps no further upside is to come.

Overall and based on the action seen last week, the bulls have the edge. As such, it is the bears that need ammunition to change the outlook.

HSI index generated an inside week but did close green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 26157 will be seen this week. The important thing is that the green weekly close has made the previous week's close at 25220 into a double low when put together with the low made 8 weeks ago at 24247. If confirmed this week, such a double low would suggest the index is in a sideways market with a short-term topside objective of 26588 (26160 on a weekly closing basis. Any daily close below 25220 or above 26512 would change the picture.

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GOLD(Dec 2025 chart) generated a new all-time high weekly close above the previous one at $4197 (closed at $4256) but did not confirm such a bullish close, given that the all-time intraweek high at $4395 was not broken. Nonetheless, Gold did make a new 8-week intraweek high and there is no intraweek resistance until that high is reached, meaning the bulls are likely to try further upside toward that level this week. On a daily closing basis, there is resistance at $4304 and that is the highly likely target for this week. The bulls were also able to generate a failure signal against the bears when the daily close support and resistance level at $4213 was broken. That level (when broken) is what brought about the correction drop all the way down to $3890. With the PCE inflation number due out on Friday, probabilities favor Gold trading between $4213 and $4304 (on a daily closing basis) the first 4 days of this week. Any break above or below that will change the outlook for the week.

OIL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5-week intraweek low and the turning around to close green and slightly above the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 59.65 than below last week's low at 57.11. The green weekly close does suggest that the weekly close support level between 57.54 and 58.29 has been tested successfully, meaning that if confirmed with a weekly close above 61.50, it would mean the downtrend is over. Nonetheless and with Oil closing on Friday at 58.48, it would seem that this was more of a pause than a statement, awaiting further news. Probabilities do not favor anything of consequence occurring this week.

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