DOW Friday Closing Price - 47954
SPX Friday Closing Price - 6870
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 25692
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2521

This past week the bulls were able to generate further upside to the recent rally, given that none of the economic reports were negative to the market. With the exception of the NASDAQ, the other 3 indexes made new all-time high weekly closes, but none made new all-time intraweek highs, keeping the door open for the highs made 4-6 weeks ago to be the top to the index market. By the same token, all 3 of those indexes came within less than 1% from the intraweek highs, suggesting that this week, the probabilities favor the bulls accomplishing that objective, especially since the closes on Friday were near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside will be seen this week.

The Fed will be announcing December's Fed Rate Decision on Wednesday December 10th at 2:00 pm, and the probabilities are now at 87% that they will cut rates. Evidently, if they don't, the index market will fall but at such a high probability rate, even if they do cut rates by 25 points, much of that has already been factored into the prices, and as such, even a cut could cause the market to fall. It is important to note that even though the NASDAQ has led the rally (percentage-wise) during the past 3 weeks (7.7% compared to the DOW at 5%), the index is still 1.4% from its all-time intraweek high and 1.3% from its all-time weekly closing high, compared to the other indexes that made new all-time weekly closing highs this past week and are less than 1% from their all-timne intraweek highs. This scenario is a possible sign that this rally is about over.

With this scenario, it does mean that Wednesday will be "the" day for the traders to make some decisions, though it is also important to know that the Jobs report and the Inflation (CPI), Retail Sales, and Durable Goods reports don't come out until the following week, suggesting that the traders may wait for those reports to make decisions, given that this week's rate decision is likely to come out as expected and it is likely already factored into the prices.

As it is, there seems to be very small chances that any of these reports will be catalytic in any way, and also considering that this is a holiday month that generally (seasonally) has not shown any big movement in any direction in the past, it does seem probable that this pattern will be repeated this time around.

Having said all of the above, the charts will be playing an indicative role for what is likely to happen in January, which has been known can be a volatile month. To the upside and after this week and next, new (and confirmed-after-the-reports come out) all-time intraweek highs would give the bulls a clear and likely decisive edge for the new-year action. In the DOW that means above 48431, in the SPX that means above 6920, in the NASDAQ above 26182, and in the RUT above 2541. As far as the downside is concerned, a confirmed failure signal on the weekly closing chart, would give the bears new ammunition. In the DOW that is below 47562, in the SPX that is below 6840, and in the RUT that is below 2520. In the NASDAQ, all the is needed at this time is 2 red weekly closes in a row without making a new weekly closing high at 25858.

Nothing is clear at this time, with all of the options above being possible on a higher percentage than normal. The indexes are overbought but more importantly overdone, at least as far as the Tech Industry is concerned. On the other side of the coin, the bears have not been able to stop the momentum-to-the-upside seen and momentum usually takes a catalytic economic report to stop it from continuing. As such and with this month already being a seasonal "nothing-of-consequence" month, it is likely that not much will happen until January comes around.

HSI index did not generate a weekly close of much consequence as nothing was broken. It did generate a green weekly close, and in the upper half of the week's, suggesting further upside above 26271 will be seen next week. There is no intraweek resistance above until 26588-26640 levels are reached but even then, those levels are not catalytic in any way other than on a short-term basis. The levels that are catalytic are at 25178 and at 27188 to the downside and upside. At this time and likely for the rest of the month, none of those levels are likely to be seen.

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GOLD(Dec 2025 chart) generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 6-week intraweek high at $4299 but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at $4194 will be seen this week. Such action might mean that Gold might now be showing a successful retest of the all-time intraweek high at $4395. Then again, that will depend on a couple of things, with the first one being a drop below $4194 but more importantly a confirmed daily close below $4213, followed by a weekly close below the previous all-time high at $4197. A daily close above $4304 would negate this past week's negative action and give the bulls new ammunition.

OIL generated a positive green week, as well as a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 60.50 will be seen this week. Having said that, Oil had a totally unindicative week, with no support or resistance levels having been broken. On a daily closing basis, the bulls need a daily close above 60.74 to begin to change things around and the bears need a daily close below 57.54 to give the bears new ammunition. If any of these scenarios occur, a weekly close above 61.50 would confirm the change. To the downside, the 57.54 level is the same on the daily and weekly charts. Oil closed on Friday at 60.14.

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